Advanced Edition: Can Aryna Sabalenka conquer US Open demons in semifinal return?

WATCH: Sabalenka set the stage for a strong US Open with a semifinal finish at the Western & Southern Open.

NEW YORK—Aryna Sabalenka was an overwhelming favorite to capture the 2021 US Open title heading into the semifinal round, only for an inspired Leylah Fernandez to derail the then-No. 2 seed in three dramatic sets.

“If you're not using your opportunities, someone else will use it,” she said after the match. “This is what happened today.

“I will try to improve it. I will keep working and fighting, and I believe that one day it will come.”

Joking later about how she wished for a fifth Grand Slam that season, Sabalenka seemed ready for redemption heading into 2022. After three more major disappointments, is she ready for a full-circle victory on Arthur Ashe Stadium?

Why She’ll Win

The Girl with the Tiger Tattoo was haunted by more than missed opportunities at the start of this season: the powerful serve that anchors her high-octane game completely abandoned her in Australia. While the Belarusian could typically expect a healthy double-fault count given the risk she takes with the delivery, she was suddenly struggling to find the court with any regularity—resulting in double-digit double faults that led to a fourth-round Australian Open exit against Kaia Kanepi.

I definitely had really, really tough season. But at the same time, I'm really appreciate this season because it show me even if something is not working for me, I'll be able to fight no matter what. It just shows me, like, how good as a competitor I am. Aryna Sabalenka

“I put a lot of pressure on myself about my serve,” she explained, “and the last matches I was trying to control everything on my serve; my legs, my arm, the ball toss. And it was overthinking.”

While the serve stabilized by spring, the ground game that had similarly become her hallmark took time to come back online, and an opportunity to replicate her Wimbledon semifinal result was dashed by the All England Club’s ban on Russian and Belarusian athletes.

The time off proved to be the break she needed: she trained in Miami and hired performance coach Gavin MacMillan to rework the biomechanics of her service motion. By the US Open, a vastly improved Sabalenka had taken the court.

“I definitely had really, really tough season,” she said. “But at the same time, I'm really appreciate this season because it show me even if something is not working for me, I'll be able to fight no matter what.

“It just shows me, like, how good as a competitor I am.”

That competitive spirit has been on display more than once in the last two weeks: in a rematch with Kanepi, she rallied from a set and 5-1 down—later saving match point in the tiebreaker—and trailed Danielle Collins by a set in the fourth round before finding her footing and rolling through nine of the final 11 games.

“Now I don't have any expectations,” she said after dispatching Karolina Pliskova in a straight-set quarterfinal. “I know it's going to be tough, and I know I have to work for it, and I have to fight for it.”

What To Watch Out For

The 24-year-old indeed has nothing to lose in her next match against a revitalized Iga Swiatek. Though the world No. 1 set expectations low with her vocal opposition to the US Open’s lighter tennis balls, the reigning Roland Garros champion has dug deep to defeat several inspired opponents—most notably in the fourth round, when she came back from a set and a break down to beat Jule Niemeier.

Sabalenka won their first meeting at last year’s WTA Finals despite struggling with her serve, but has lost all three encounters in 2033, including a straight-sets hard-court defeat at the Qatar Total Open.

“She's a great player, always tough matches against her,” said the No. 6 seed. “She's moving well, hitting the ball really well, serving well.

“She's a tough opponent, but I'll do my best there and I'll make her work as much as I can.”

Should she be on song early, Sabalenka could take full advantage of the quicker conditions and rush Swiatek into errors, but whether she reaches her first Grand Slam final will likely come down to what goes on between the ears.

“It's going to be tough, and I know I have to really work hard for this win. Now I will just go there and fight for every point.”