Betting Central

Line Calls, presented by FanDuel Sportsbook: Dominic Thiem vs. Sebastian Korda, Antwerp

Thiem is coming off perhaps his biggest win of the year, but Korda may be one tough challenge too many.

Published Oct 21, 2022

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WATCH: TENNIS.com gambling writer Zach Cohen has a pick on an American who’s on a hot streak in Belgium

If you needed a sign that former US Open champion Dominic Thiem is rounding into title-winning form, look no further than his 3-6, 7-6 (9), 7-6 (4) win over world No. 11 Hubert Hurkacz today in Antwerp. This wasn’t a late-season throwaway match for the Pole, as he desperately needs to collect ranking point in order to earn a spot in the ATP Finals. Thiem finding a way to get through that tight contest shows that he’s close to competing at a high level again. However, we’re skeptical about his chances to repeat against world No. 36 Sebastian Korda in the semifinals.

While Thiem needed two hours and 58 minutes to get through that physical match—and also played a three-set match against Francisco Cerundolo in the previous round—Korda has dropped just one set through three matches, winning each of his last two in straights. The American needed only 54 minutes to beat Yoshihito Nishioka in the quarterfinals, and it’s just hard to ignore how fresh Korda will be compared to his opponent in this match-up.

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Korda's 7-5, 7-6 (9) win over US Open semifinalist Karen Khachanov earlier this week should give his backers plenty of confidence.

If Thiem was at his absolute peak right now, we wouldn’t be too concerned about the amount of time he has spent on court in Belgium. However, he’s not quite there at the moment, and Korda has the type of game that could give him problems. The American is a complete player, dangerous from both sides on the baseline and nimble for a 6'5" frame. The only true edge Thiem will have in this match is between the ears, given his edge in experience. But in a matchup in which Korda will have significant advantages in physicality, we’re not quite sure Thiem’s tennis IQ will help him prevail.

All in all, we just don’t see how this version of Thiem will find ways to really give Korda trouble. The American is a -170 favorite in this match for a reason. The oddsmakers surely know that casual bettors will see a big plus-money number next to Thiem’s name and want to back him. But Vegas is seemingly comfortable with that. And while we don’t want to lay -170 juice on Korda here, we do like him at -2.5 games. That’s not that different from a straight-up moneyline play, but you’re getting much better odds when you lay the games.

Line Call: Korda -2.5 Games (-110)

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