Betting Central

Line Calls, presented by FanDuel Sportsbook: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Carlos Alcaraz, Basel

This might look like a lopsided matchup on paper, but the Canadian is playing some of the best tennis of his life right now.

ByZachary Cohen

Published Oct 29, 2022

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If you haven’t been staying on top of the ATP Tour since the end of the US Open, you might view a match-up between world No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz and world No. 9 Felix Auger-Aliassime as a straightforward one for the Spaniard. But Auger-Aliassime has been playing some of the best tennis of his career recently—the Canadian even said that his 6-1, 6-0 win over Miomir Kecmanovic on Thursday was the best match he’s played in his entire life. With that in mind, Alcaraz should be in for a challenge when these two meet in the semifinals in Basel on Saturday.

While Alcaraz might be the best player on the planet, the 19-year-old doesn’t have as much incentive to win a match like this one as his opponent. Alcaraz has already secured his spot in the ATP Finals, unlike Auger-Aliassime. The Canadian is currently competing for one of the remaining spots in elite eight, meaning that every match left is extremely important. It's safe to assume he’s going to come out with a little more intensity than Alcaraz in this spot—and that’s ultimately one of the driving forces in us taking a shot on him to win this match on the moneyline.

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If this were a Masters 1000 tournament or a Grand Slam, we’d likely be on Alcaraz to come through in this match-up.

Auger-Aliassime also matches up rather nicely with Alcaraz right now. He's become one of the best servers on tour, with a career-high hold percentage at 85.8%. FAA is just really comfortable with the ball on his racquet, whereas Carlitos can occasionally run into trouble in his service games. It could be costly against a player of Auger-Aliassime’s caliber.

Alcaraz can also be guilty of trying to do a little too much from the baseline, which leads to unforced errors. Auger-Aliassime has a very steady game, and he really keeps things simple out there. And his power is tremendous when he’s on, so he should be able to go shot for shot with Alcaraz.

If this were a Masters 1000 tournament or a Grand Slam, we’d likely be on Alcaraz to come through in this match-up. But being that this is a slightly smaller event—and one that is a lot more important for his opponent—we like FAA as a plus-money play. It’s great value for a player that has been lights out recently.

Line Call: Auger-Aliassime To Win (+112)

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