Line Calls June 13 2022

On Tuesday, world No. 16 Diego Schwartzman faces world No. 121 Sam Querrey at the Queen’s Club Championships in London. While Querrey had to go through qualifying to reach the main draw, this match-up isn’t as straightforward as it might seem. In fact, with Schwartzman being ranked a lot higher and only sitting at -120 to win, this appears to be a big-time trap from the oddsmakers.

While the easy thing to do in a match-up like this is jump on Schwartzman as such a small favorite, it’s important to take a closer look at why the sportsbooks might be willing to let you have the Argentinean at such favorable odds. And in this particular match-up, it’s actually easy to identify why.

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While Querrey went through qualifying without dropping a single set—and is now 5-2 record on grass in 2022—Schwartzman hasn’t played a singles match since losing in straight sets to Novak Djokovic at Roland Garros. Schwartzman hasn’t had any time to get his feet wet on this unique surface, one that's a lot different than red clay. Querrey’s serve, only amplified by the slick turf, is going to be a mighty challenge for Schwartzman to handle. That, ultimately, should make the difference in determining the winner in this one. In addition, Schwartzman’s serve is shaky enough to give the American some openings.

Querrey is no longer the player he once was, but that shouldn’t matter on Tuesday. Of course, Schwartzman will have the advantage in any longer rallies between these two players, but Querrey should be able to pull this one out thanks to his advantage with the ball on his racquet. The grass allows for shorter rallies, where Querrey’s power might allow him to look a bit better than he is with his groundstrokes.

This might not be an easy victory, of course, but Querrey will have a significant edge if these two go to tiebreakers, which is entirely possible. And this just seems like a prime let-down spot for Schwartzman, who is going to need to play some more matches on grass before he heads to Wimbledon. The 29-year-old is just 7-12 on grass in his career as a Tour-level player.

Throughout the clay season, we tried to target players who weren’t playing enough matches on the surface. We’re going to stick with that same approach on grass.

Line Call: Querrey To Win (+102)