Pick of the Day: Roberto Bautista Agut vs. Ben Shelton, Australian Open

Ben Shelton is one of the most exciting young players on tour, and many view him as the next great American. I’m similarly high on Shelton’s game, but I still think he needs some seasoning. I believe his Grand Slam window will open after the 2024 season, and a big part of that is that Shelton simply needs to play more matches. He is not very experienced and relies heavily on his remarkable talent. It gives him a chance in any match he plays, but Shelton was one of my players to fade in my 2024 Australian Open preview, and his meeting with Robert Bautista Agut could spell trouble.

Bautista Agut is a 35-year-old veteran that has won 11 tournaments throughout his career. And while he’s no longer the player he once was, he still has something left in the tank. Bautista Agut is a solid baseliner and hits his spots on his serve, so he won’t make things easy on Shelton. We also just saw the American lose to Taro Daniel in the semifinals in Auckland, and that was a match in which Shelton was spraying unforced errors. Because of how talented he is, Shelton occasionally makes things tougher on himself by going for the kill shot. He'd be wise to to ease up a little, grind points out and attack when there's an opening.

Bautista Agut will likely fluster Shelton if the youngster is being impatient and trying too hard to put on a show. The Spaniard has made a career of getting a lot of balls in play and sending them deep in the court, and Bautista Agut can give himself a chance by doing exactly that in this match. He is one of the game’s better counterpunchers, and he can also rip his forehand when he gets opportunities.

I think Bautista Agut has what it takes to push Shelton here, and I can even see him winning this match. But with money on the line, I’m taking him to win at least two sets instead, as it wouldn’t shock me if he ran out of steam late. Shelton is also the type of player that can rally later in a match, feeding off the energy of the crowd. That’s why it makes sense to play this a little safer and simply back Bautista Agut to flirt with victory. It’s available at plus-money odds, so you’d still be rewarded for being a little bold.

Pick: Bautista Agut +1.5 Sets (+125)