Pick of the Day: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Jannik Sinner, Roland Garros

For the first time since the 2022 US Open, we’re going to see Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner meet each another at a major. This epic showdown was set up by Alcaraz earning a 6-3, 7-6 (3), 6-4 win over Stefanos Tsitsipas, and Sinner cruising to a 6-2, 6-4, 7-6 (3) win over Grigor Dimitrov. Now, the stage is set for the two young faces of tennis to meet for the first time since Indian Wells—where Alcaraz came away with a 1-6, 6-3, 6-2 victory over Sinner.

That scoreline in the desert isn’t insignificant, as it was played on a very slow hard court. As the odds in this match suggest, Alcaraz is the player that theoretically has an edge on slower surfaces. However, I’ve been on the Sinner train since before this tournament, when I suggested a play on the Italian to win at +460 odds. And while I’m not adding anything with this match, I do think Sinner +4.5 games is a good play.

There’s no denying that Alcaraz has a lot of weapons that are dangerous on clay. His ability to pound the ball from the forehand side while also hitting with intense topspin will be valuable in this match. He’s also the fastest player in the world, making it hard to get the ball by him. However, Sinner is one of the few players in the world that hits with enough power to rush Alcaraz. And I think he’ll be able to do that here, even with the conditions being a lot slower.

Sinner is also a much better server than Alcaraz right now, as he had the highest hold percentage in the world heading into this tournament. That’s something that simply can’t be ignored when looking at how these two match up with one another, as Alcaraz’s serve can occasionally be very shaky. In fact, the Spaniard’s best chance of holding at a higher clip is when he gets a lot of spin on his serve, hits it deep in the box and follows it up with a volley. He’s a tremendous serve-and-volley player. However, Sinner is as good as it gets when it comes to hitting passing shots. So, he’ll test Alcaraz at the net here.

Sinner is also an elite returner in general. That means he could put a lot of pressure on Alcaraz’s serve, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he wins a lopsided set at some point here. That alone would go a long way towards a potential cover.

I know that clay isn’t known as Sinner’s surface, but I think those concerns are a little overblown. He has had a lot of success on this surface in his career, but his 2023 breakout happened to coincide with the start of hard-court season. Now, Sinner is showing that the elite-level play translates to the red stuff.

I’m still not fully convinced Alcaraz has shown he has what it takes to beat this peak level of Sinner. So, while it’s a little juicy, I’m suggesting a play on Sinner to cover a 4.5-game spread. And I wouldn't blame anybody that takes the moneyline. It’s not every day that you get a plus-money price on the best player in the world.

Pick: Sinner +4.5 Games (-167)