Pick of the Day: Casper Ruud vs. Alexander Zverev, Roland Garros

Casper Ruud, who benefited most from Novak Djokovic's withdrawal, is a win away from reaching his third consecutive Roland Garros final. However, he'll need to go through Alexander Zverev, who earned a straight-set win over Alex de Minaur in the quarterfinals, to do it. Zverev is fresh off a title run in Rome, and many believe that he is ready to break through and win his first major. The problem for Zverev is that he has played a lot of physical matches in the last week, and Ruud should be able to take advantage of that. That’s part of the reason why I like Ruud to win this match.

Zverev’s match against de Minaur ended in straight sets, but it was still a very physical contest that took the German three hours and two minutes. Zverev has now been on the court for 11 hours and 34 minutes over his last three rounds. While he is in very good shape, that type of time is taxing on anybody. Now Zverev is playing a player that didn’t play at all in the quarters. Ruud hits one of the heaviest balls on tour, and he finds the court a lot. Zverev won’t be able to play this match without scrambling a ton.

It’s also hard not to feel like Zverev’s opponents have gifted him the last couple of matches. Tallon Griekspoor squandered a 4-1, double-break lead in the fifth set in the third round, and Holger Rune ran out of steam in the fifth set in the Round of 16. I don’t see that happening with Ruud. The Norwegian has a tremendous 26-6 record on clay over the last 52 weeks, including titles in Barcelona and Geneva in the run-up. He was in as good of form as Zverev was before arriving in Paris.

Ruud has the ability to do a lot of things that can make Zverev uncomfortable in this match, starting with his ability to hammer forehands cross court. He should get the ball up on Zverev’s forehand side and test that shot as often as possible. He’s also going to use the slice to mix things up and make Zverev play balls at a lot of different heights. All in all, Zverev hasn’t seen anybody with Ruud’s ability to construct points in this tournament, yet the German has still struggled to earn convincing wins. That should end against a player that has a great mix of talent and know-how.

It’s worth adding that Ruud beat Zverev to a pulp when the two played in the semifinals here last year, coasting to a 6-3, 6-4, 6-0 win in two hours and 11 minutes. Sure, Zverev is playing much better tennis in 2024, but he hasn’t looked as good in Paris as he did in Rome.

Overall, I’m not taking anything in this spot because I have Ruud to win the tournament at +1200 odds. But I’d be pouncing on this with a bigger play than usual otherwise.

Pick: Ruud ML (+100)