Australian Open Women's Final Betting Preview: Madison Keys vs. Aryna Sabalenka

The last time Madison Keys was in a Grand Slam final, at the 2017 US Open, she lost 6-3, 6-0 to fellow American Sloane Stephens. Eight years later, Keys is back in the big dance, as she’ll take on Aryna Sabalenka in the 2025 Australian Open final. Sabalenka has won this event in back-to-back years, so the Belarusian is exceedingly comfortable in Melbourne. But with the way Keys has played to start the season, this match is going to be played like one of them is looking into a mirror.

With that in mind, it feels like there’s some value to be had on Keys, especially when it comes to simply winning a set. But you might as well throw a little pizza money on her to win it all, too.

With these two players, power is the name of the game. But what gives Keys a chance of finally breaking through and winning this match is that she is moving very well Down Under. Throughout her title run in Adelaide and her run to the final in Melbourne, Keys has been working to get in and out of the corners to play some extra balls that would have gone by her in years past. That ability to scratch and claw to put a few more shots in play allowed her to upset Iga Swiatek in the semis, and I think it’ll give her a nice little advantage in baseline exchanges against Sabalenka.

Keys is also serving extremely well this season; she spent the offseason working on her technique. Both players have the ability to rack up holds quickly, but they can also let nerves get the best of them and toss away service games. But that’s where the situation comes into play: Keys is playing with house money right now, so she should be freed of any expectations at Rod Laver Arena. Everybody thought we were getting a Swiatek versus Sabalenka final, so there would be no shame in Keys losing here—as much as she wants a maiden major title. Sabaleka losing to a player outside the Top 10, in a tournament she has won twice in a row? There will be big expectations, and there will be a lot of pressure. Keys should get some opportunities to break, and she’s a great returner.

You also can’t mention these two without bringing up the 2023 US Open semifinals. Keys won the first set of that match 6-0, and she had a chance to serve it out in the second. Then, even after letting the second set slip away, Keys was up a break in the third. She showed she has what it takes to compete with Sabalenka on a massive stage—even if the Belarusian stole it in the end. Keys just has to be mentally solid in this match, but she seems like she’s in a great place right now. And her genuine excitement just to be back in the final of a Slam should serve her well.

The only thing I’m really concerned about is the tape Keys is playing with on her left thigh. The American insists she’s feeling alright, and that’s good enough to take a shot on her. Honestly, at the current prices, it’s Keys or nothing. I wouldn’t want to be laying -303 with Sabalenka, or hoping she wins in straights against this caliber of opponent.

Overall, Sabalenka’s best level is definitely a little too much for Keys. She’s the No. 1 player in the world for a reason, and her hard-court dominance over the last few years has been something else. But recent form might be favoring Keys coming into this match, and these odds don’t seem to be giving her much of a chance.

Pick: Keys +1.5 Sets (-111) & Keys ML (+250 - sprinkle)