On Sunday, May 12, Naomi Osaka will take on Daria Kasatkina in the Round of 32 at the Internazionali BNL d’Italia in Rome. This should be one of the most exciting matches of the day, as Osaka is starting to find her groove again. The four-time Grand Slam champion beat Clara Burel 7-6 (2), 6-1 in her opener, and she followed it up with a 6-3, 6-2 win over Marta Kostyuk. That second win was very impressive, as Kostyuk has been one of the best players in the world in 2024. Now, Osaka will look to continue to make some strides, and I think she has what it takes to beat Kasatkina on clay.
Kasatkina’s ability to hit heavy topspin and defend the baseline make her a tough opponent on this surface, and she has more variety than most of the players on tour. Her slice is another effective weapon on clay. But Kasatkina can still really struggle to hold. Her first serve gets away from her, and she has one of the worst second serves amongst the top players in the world. That’s not what you want against Osaka, who should be able to feast on any second serves she sees. And Osaka is still capable of putting her head down and holding when it’s her turn to serve. So, any opportunities that get away from Kasatkina could do her in.
The slow conditions could also be exactly what Osaka needs right now. Since returning to the tour, Osaka’s movement hasn’t quite been there. But she has some extra time to get to balls right now, and that makes her a more dangerous player from the baseline. And if she just holds her own from back there and doesn’t serve horribly, she’ll have a really good shot at winning. That’s why I love the idea of taking her as an underdog.
Pick: Osaka ML (+120)