Pick of the Day: Viktoriya Tomova vs. Sofia Kenin, Indian Wells

On Thursday night, Viktoriya Tomova and Sofia Kenin will clash in the opening round of the BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells. On paper, this probably looks like a match that should go the 2020 Australian Open champion’s way. And the betting public definitely thinks so, as roughly 70% of the bets for this match have come in on Kenin. However, Kenin has really struggled in 2024, leaving the door open for Tomova to pull off the upset. And I like the Bulgarian to get the job done.

Kenin is on a five-match losing streak, and is just 1-6 in 2024. She's really struggling right now with her movement, which is not what you want in a gritty tournament like Indian Wells. Winning matches on the slow hard courts in the desert requires the ability to grind out points. It’s going to be hard for her to do that considering he form, and she’s also a threat to spray unforced errors on any given day.

As for Tomova, the Bulgarian comes into this match after having won two of her last three. She’s not in particularly great form right now, but she’s definitely going to have some more confidence than her opponent. Tomova is also a relentless grinder from the baseline. She’ll do her best to chase down every ball, and that should ultimately frustrate Kenin. If she’s forcing the American to play a lot of extra balls, that means more chances for Kenin to make a mistake.

Overall, it’s just a little surprising to see that Kenin is a significant favorite against any solid player. So, I’m willing to take a shot on the underdog. It might not be all that pretty to watch, but winning would make up for that.

Pick: Tomova ML (+134)