Can Daniil Medvedev keep things close against Jannik Sinner at Wimbledon?

On Tuesday, world No. 1 Jannik Sinner will face Daniil Medvedev in the Wimbledon quarterfinals. It will be a rematch of the 2024 Australian Open final, which saw Sinner rally from a two-set deficit to claim the first major of his career. Sinner has since played tremendous tennis, and he wiped the court with Medvedev in Miami—6-1, 6-2, for his fifth consecutive win over the Russian.

Ultimately, it’s hard to say that this match will be anything but a win for the Italian. But I still like Medvedev’s chances of taking at least one set, which is why I’m playing the Over on the set total.

Medvedev’s last performance against Sinner was a nightmare, but there’s no reason he can’t find some success against him on grass. The reality is that it’s really hard to win in straight sets against a competent server on these courts. And while Medvedev’s hold percentage is down at 79.3% in 2024, he’s undoubtedly a player that can be trusted with the ball on his racquet. Last season, Medvedev’s hold percentage was 84.7%. The year before that, he was up at 86.4%. The Russian might not have the pop that some of the top servers on the planet do, but he’s always capable of hitting his spots.

It’s also not like Sinner has been flawless at the All England Club thus far. He's had his moments of brilliance, but he has also given his opponents some openings. Sinner dropped a set against Yannick Hanfmann in the first round, and did the same against Matteo Berrettini in his next match. Also, while Sinner has won his last two matches in straight sets, he definitely gave Ben Shelton some chances. He was down a break against Shelton in the third set, and he also faced a few set points in that match. If Sinner gives Medvedev similar  opportunities, the Russian will eventually capitalize.

This will also be a very fresh version of Medvedev, with Grigor Dimitrov retiring against the Russian in the first set of their fourth-rounder. Health is ultimately what prevented the Russian from winning another Grand Slam title in Melbourne. I also think that Medvedev found a little something that works against Sinner in playing that match tired. Medvedev, who is normally known for his defensive abilities, had to go on the offensive in that match to try to end points early. He ended up running out of steam and couldn’t execute any longer, but it’ll be interesting to see if he brings some of that to this contest.

Attacking balls early in rallies and coming to the net a little more than usual can help Medvedev get his foot in the door here.

Pick of the Day: Over 3.5 Sets (-167)