Charleston Betting Preview: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs. Jessica Pegula

Jessica Pegula backed herself into a corner in her quarterfinal match against Danielle Collins at the Credit One Charleston Open. The world No. 3 lost the opening set 6-1 and then went down a break in the second. However, Pegula was ultimately able to flip the switch, and she ended up cruising to a 1-6, 6-3, 6-0 victory. Now, Pegula faces an opponent that has given her fits lately, Ekaterina Alexandrova, for a spot in the final. And while I’m not sure I have a good feel for who will end up winning this match, it does seem likely it’ll be competitive. So, I’m taking the Over on the game total.

Pegula is coming off a run to the Miami final, so she’s in good form right now. That’s always somewhat scary when taking an Over, as the best players in the world are capable of pummeling mid-tier players. However, Alexandrova has looked fantastic in Charleston. I actually thought she’d lose to Diana Shnaider in the Round of 16, but she earned a 6-2, 6-1 win. Then, she went out and demolished Qinwen Zheng, winning 6-1, 6-4. So, while Pegula is a more consistent presence at the top of the sport, both of these players are firing on all cylinders right now. That means we should get the best of both.

If we do see both players show up in this match, I’m not sure I see this being one-sided either way. Pegula did earn a 6-2, 6-4 win over Alexandrova in their only clay-court meeting, but that was in Rome back in 2021. We have seen two matches pretty recently in which Alexandrova has come out on top in three-setters. At last year’s Miami Open, Alexandrova earned a 3-6, 6-4, 6-4 win in a fun two-hour match. Then, in Doha this year, Alexandrova came away with a 4-6, 6-1, 6-1 win over the American.

It’s just clear that Pegula has some things that she knows she can go to in order to make Alexandrova sweat, as she has won at least a set in all three of her meetings with the Russian. But Alexandrova has also shown that she can adjust to what Pegula throws at her. She hasn’t lost to her since their first showdown, and she came back from a one-set deficit in each of the last two wins.

With all of that in mind, it’s hard to see this going any other way. And the beauty in taking the Over on 20.5 games is that even a 7-5, 6-3 straight-set win would go Over the number. So would a 7-6, 6-2 win. So, if this is just extremely tight for one set, we should see an Over. And while it’s Alexandrova that is probably the more likely of the two to get blown out, she’s a big server that tends to play longer matches. She has actually gone Over a total of 20.5 in 59% of the matches she has played over the last 52 weeks.

Pick: Over 20.5 Games (-154)