How do you bet the Roland Garros final between Iga Swiatek and Jasmine Paolini?

Iga Swiatek will be looking to win her fourth title at Roland Garros on Saturday, June 8, when she’ll face Jasmine Paolini in the final. Paolini has had a remarkable tournament thus far, and she deserves all the credit in the world for making it to this point. The Italian has also earned a spot in the WTA’s Top 10. However, this is Swiatek’s tournament to lose now. SportsOddsHistory.com has the Pole as the biggest recorded betting favorite in major final history. All in all, that makes this a very difficult match to bet.

If you listened to my advice and took Swiatek to win the tournament, you’re not going to want to touch this match. But I understand there’s an appetite for betting matches like this, so I did find a prop. That’s for Swiatek to win the first set and serve the most aces in the match at +140 odds (at DraftKings Sportsbook).

The first part of the bet should be easy to cover—I’d be shocked if the Pole doesn’t win this match in straights. Swiatek just has an incredible feel for how to play on these slower courts, and her world-class defense is going to make it hard for Paolini to play the type of offense she played against Elena Rybakina and Mirra Andreeva. Swiatek also has more dangerous weapons on both the forehand and backhand sides. So, there shouldn’t be anything that Paolini can do to make Swiatek uncomfortable enough to feel any danger here.

The only real chance is if the 23-year-old is insanely tight on the big stage. We have seen her become overcome with emotion and nerves before, but I'm not sure even that would be enough for her to drop a set against Paolini.

As for the aces in the match, this is where things get a little dicey. Swiatek isn’t known for blasting serves by her opponents, but I do think she’ll end up with a few more than Paolini. Swiatek’s ace percentage in 2024 is 2.3%, which is a bit higher than Paolini’s 1.9% ace percentage. Swiatek has also served up six aces in this tournament, while Paolini has only five. And I also think that Swiatek could find a few more in this match than she has in others. Paolini is just 5-foot-4 and doesn’t have much length. So, if Swiatek is hitting her spots, Paolini might have trouble getting a racquet on some of her very best serves.

I should note that this isn’t a play I’d put a lot on. This is just a fun plus-money bet in a match in which it’s very tough to find value. And I’ll also reiterate that this isn’t something to take if you took Swiatek to win the tournament. Don’t mess with your potential payday.

Pick: Swiatek To Win Set 1 & Serve More Aces In The Match (+140)