Indian Wells Betting Preview: Hubert Hurkacz vs. Alex de Minaur

Hubert Hurkacz defeated Alex de Minaur the last time they played, 6-3, 6-4, but that was all the way back in 2019. Fast-forward to 2025, and this feels like a nightmare of a match-up for the Pole, and that’s especially true when talking about playing at Indian Wells. The conditions at the BNP Paribas Open favor returners quite a bit, and de Minaur is one of the best on the planet. I’m thinking the Australian should be able to cover a 2.5-game spread in the desert.

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Hurkacz possesses one of the biggest serves on the ATP Tour, and his ability to bomb the ball and rack up easy holds is the reason he has been as high as No. 6 in the rankings. However, these courts really slow the ball down upon bouncing, so Hurkacz’s serve will be neutralized a bit. We saw that in his match against Hugo Gaston: the Frenchman wasn’t able to break through and take advantage of it, but he consistently put Hurkacz under pressure. Well, de Minaur has the second-highest break percentage in the men’s game over the last 52 weeks. He gets his racquet on everything, so he should be able to come away with a key break or two here.

De Minaur has also done a lot of work to improve his own service game, and we’re seeing that pay off in a big way in 2025. His hold percentage is a career-high 86.3% since the start of the new season. This isn’t a match-up in which Hurkacz will be able to get breaks back once they’re gone.

De Minaur also happens to have an impenetrable baseline game. He’s one of the best players in the world when it comes to defending the baseline and counter-punching—which will also give Hurkacz fits. The Pole might have a big serve, but he lacks a big game from the back of the court. He’s going to struggle to hit through de Minaur, and he’s the more likely of the two to break down in longer rallies.

Realistically, there are courts in which Hurkacz can probably hang with de Minaur. In much quicker conditions, Hurkacz is tough to beat for anyone. But this tournament really does a number on the strongest part of Hurkacz’s game, and it’s only going to strengthen a big part of de Minaur’s. Let’s just root for a quick two-setter, with one of those sets being decided before a tiebreaker.

Pick: de Minaur -2.5 Games (-125)