Indian Wells Betting Preview: Mirra Andreeva vs. Iga Swiatek

On Wednesday’s episode of Tennis Bets Live, we all wondered why Iga Swiatek was sitting out there at even-money odds to win the BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells. She has won this tournament in two of the last three years, and she hasn’t dropped a set in this year’s event. But the favorable odds are out there because the oddsmakers believe Mirra Andreeva, winner of 10 consecutive matches, can beat Swiatek in these conditions.

The teenager just beat Swiatek in Doha, another event Swiatek has dominated throughout her career. Well, I’m with the oddsmakers here. I’m having a hard time laying off Andreeva at (somewhat sizable) plus-money odds in this match.

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The reason it’s so hard to beat Swiatek at Indian Wells is that it’s nearly impossible to get the ball by her in slower conditions. It's also why the Pole has been so dominant at Roland Garros. However, Andreeva is very similar in that she’s an absolute wall along the back of the court. Just this week, we have seen powerful players like Clara Tauson and Elena Rybakina find very little success in hitting the ball through her. If those two players combined to win just six total games against Andreeva here, are we sure Swiatek is going to be able to hit through her?

Swiatek is going to obliterate her topspin forehand, hoping to push Andreeva around the court. But I don’t think the 17-year-old is going to mind playing some defense in this match. I actually thought playing some longer rallies against Elina Svitolina in the quarterfinals could give Andreeva problems after a couple of matches against quick-strike opponents, but that wasn’t the case at all. She calmly went to work and got as many balls back as she could, and she then ripped forehand or backhand winners whenever there were chances. And her forehand is something else right now. It was Andreeva’s kryptonite in 2023 and 2024, but it looks like a weapon in 2025. The same goes for her serve, and all of that is a product of Andreeva visibly adding muscle from last year to this year.

If Andreeva is able to consistently get balls back, and make Swiatek go big to try and blow shots by her, the Pole could get in her own head and start missing wildly. We have seen over the years that Swiatek’s toughest opponent is often herself. She can start spiraling a bit when things aren’t going her way, and unforced errors start to pile up when that happens. Well, facing a player that has the potential to out-Iga her in her favorite conditions could very well do that. The match they played against one another in Doha was rather lopsided, with Andreeva earning a 6-3, 6-3 win. Andreeva was also broken only once in that match, and she broke Swiatek four times.

It’s just possible that this is about to be one of the sports main rivalries sooner than people think. Andreeva is proving this week that Dubai wasn’t a fluke. It was a sign of things to come. So, let’s see what the 17-year-old can do here. And if we do see another strong showing from Andreeva, you might want to throw in some futures on the young Russian to win majors. Her maiden Grand Slam title is right around the corner, and being earlier is always better than being late.

Pick: Andreeva ML (+167)