Jiri Lehecka vs. Daniil Medvedev, Mutua Madrid Open

Jiri Lehecka beat up on Rafael Nadal in the Round of 16 at the Mutua Madrid Open. The Czech earned a 7-5, 6-4 win in the match, putting on a masterful display as a server and absolutely pummeling shots from the baseline. Nadal didn’t even play all that poorly, but Lehecka can play breathtaking tennis when he’s at his very best. That’s exactly what we saw on Tuesday.

The 22-year-old will now look to build on that performance when he takes on world No. 4 Daniil Medvedev in the quarterfinals. And while I’m not exactly sure Lehecka will win the match, I do think he’s capable of covering a 3.5-game spread.

The reason I like Lehecka to give Medvedev some trouble is his serving. Lehecka made 70.8% of his first serves against Nadal last round, and he won 89.1% of his first-serve points. That first number probably isn’t repeatable, but Lehecka also made 67.2% of his first serves and won 89.7% of his first-serve points against Hamad Medjedovic in his first match in Madrid. And this isn't the first ridiculous serving performance from Lehecka we've seen this season.

If Lehecka can continue to hit his spots and find a way to make Medvedev uncomfortable as a returner, there’s no reason this match can’t be extremely close. That’s especially true when you factor in Medvedev’s serve dropping off a cliff in 2024. In 2021, Medvedev held at 87.0%, and he followed that up with a 2023 season in which he held at 86.4%. But that number fell to 84.7% in 2023, and it’s now all the way down at 80.3%. He is no longer holding easily, and a lot of that has to do with him not making first serves regularly. That might catch up to him against Lehecka. The Czech isn’t the greatest returner in the world, but he’s capable of taking advantage of opportunities—especially if he gets a lot of them.

I’m also really interested in seeing how this shakes out from the baseline. Medvedev is obviously one of the best defensive players in the world, and that should translate to some big time clay-court success. But it hasn’t quite worked out that way yet. The altitude in Madrid makes things a little easier on power players, so Lehecka might be able to push him around a little. We just saw the Czech do it against Nadal. When he’s hitting his spots on the court, he’s incredibly difficult to beat.

This just feels like a match that could feature two very close sets, which is why I want to be getting the games. But I also wouldn’t rule out the possibility of Lehecka forcing a third set, or even winning this one. He's in the midst of a breakout year and he clearly has the talent to be a Top 10 player.

Pick: Lehecka +3.5 Games (-149)