Pick of the Day: Kei Nishikori vs. Sebastian Ofner, Miami Open

Kei Nishikori hasn’t played a tour-level match in a very long time. We haven’t seen the 2014 US Open runner-up since last July, when he made it to the quarterfinals of the Atlanta Open. Nishikori is reportedly healthier than he has been in quite some time, and some impressive footage came out of the 34-year-old practicing with Casper Ruud before his tour return this week in Miami.

Considering how poorly Sebastian Ofner is playing right now, that’s all I needed to see.

Ofner comes into this tournament after having lost three matches in a row,. and six of his last seven. The most recent defeat was the worst of all, against Terence Atmane in his first match at the Phoenix Challenger. Ofner is a player with big-time power, and he plays an aggressive brand of tennis. However, none of that matters when you aren’t finding the court. Ofner has not been able to control his aggression lately, and his unforced error counts have skyrocketed. That will be a problem against Nishikori.

Nishikori might not be able to move quite as well as he used to, but he’s still a player with a dangerous game for Miami's conditions. Nishikori has a lot of variety in his game, as he has power from both wings, but he also utilizes spin. With his forehand, he’ll pound the ball, but will also do so with heavy topspin. The ability to do that is a huge asset on these courts. Nishikori also has a flat backhand that should be hard for Ofner to handle. On top of that, Nishikori also knows when to utilize slice shots.

The only things I’m worried about here are Nishikori’s conditioning and serving ability. Miami can be a hard place to play on a good day, so hopefully Nishikori is ready to go three sets and grind for a win. But the serve is less of a concern against Ofner, who is only holding at 78.7%, and has a horrible break percentage (16.5%).

Overall, this just feels like a great opportunity for Nishikori to get in the win column, on a big stage. So, I’m playing him at plus-money odds.

Pick: Nishikori ML (+140)