Madrid Open Betting Preview: Mariano Navone vs. Ben Shelton

One of the most intriguing matches on Friday’s Mutua Madrid Open schedule sees Ben Shelton taking on Mariano Navone in the Round of 64. This is a rematch of a match we saw at Indian Wells, where Shelton earned a relatively straightforward 6-3, 6-2 victory. However, Shelton is coming off a run to the final in Munich last week, and he could be a little fatigued after having played five matches — and two physical three-setters. This match is also being played on Navone’s preferred surface. With that in mind, I think it’s worth playing the Argentine as an underdog.

Shelton obviously has a massive weapon with that serve of his, and that should keep this match from being lopsided. However, you do need a little more than just a serve in order to win in Madrid. I know this is considered a server-friendly tournament, but that’s relative to other clay-court events. You can still grind out points and win matches from the back of the court, and Navone is going to have a massive edge over Shelton when we do see longer rallies. After all, Navone is 21-17 on clay in his career. Shelton is just 14-14 on the surface, and four of those wins came in Houston.

I also like Navone to at least put pressure on the Shelton serve. He’s one of the best clay-court returners in the world, so he won’t just accept defeat in the American’s service games. He’s going to change up his court positioning and do everything he can to find ways into points. Navone should also be able to do good work in his own service games. Shelton really isn’t much of a returner, and Navone is a good clay-court server.

It’s also hard to ignore the way Navone handled Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard last round. Shelton is obviously a much better baseliner than the Frenchman, and it isn’t remotely close. But Mpetshi Perricard is a much better server than Shelton, so the Argentine should be ready to dig in as a returner here. And honestly, the Shelton serve might look like a changeup compared to Mpetshi Perricard’s.

The deep run from Shelton in Munich is also something that has to be considered. Not only is it hard to find your legs after a lengthy run in another city, but it’s also hard to find your focus. And if Shelton doesn’t bring his A-game, Navone will send him packing for Rome.

Pick: Navone ML (+125)