Miami Open Betting Preview: Jakub Mensik vs. Novak Djokovic

On the most recent episode of Tennis Bets Live, I noted that I have a future on Novak Djokovic to win the Miami Open at +187 odds. For anybody that also has Djokovic to win the tournament, the decision on what to do with his final against Jakub Mensik is easy: Put a little on Mensik to win at the best moneyline price you can find, but don’t cut into your potential Djokovic winnings too much.

The Serb is a massive moneyline favorite, and he should find a way to out-class his younger opponent. But not hedging at least a little with Mensik as such a big underdog would be foolish.

The Czech’s serve is so dangerous that you’d rather have nothing to worry about if he forces one or more tiebreaks, and starts to make Djokovic sweat. However, I understand there aren’t too many people out there that listen to everything—or anything—I say, so there are surely plenty of bettors that don’t have a position on Djokovic. Well, for those tennis fans, I’d suggest laying 3.5 games with the 24-time Grand Slam champion.

Mensik’s serve makes him a dangerous opponent. When he’s locked in, he can force tiebreaks almost effortlessly, which is a nightmare scenario for anyone betting against him. However, Djokovic is the greatest returner in the history of the sport, and he has the ability to make Mensik uncomfortable—especially if he’s not making first serves at a high clip.

Mensik is also stepping into uncharted territory. This is his first Masters 1000 final, and he’s facing not just any opponent, but his childhood idol. That’s an insane amount of pressure for a 19-year-old. If those nerves creep in, Djokovic can capitalize immediately. A single break might be all it takes, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he secures a couple—especially if the humid conditions start to wear on Mensik, who has had trouble with heat early in his career.

Djokovic also thrives in these exact matchups. One of his greatest strengths is his ability to expose an opponent’s weakness and force them to beat him with their least reliable shot. In Mensik’s case, that means Djokovic will relentlessly target the forehand wing. Expect him to go cross-court repeatedly to draw errors, while using his signature down-the-line backhand to keep Mensik off balance and out of rhythm.

Djokovic also happens to be playing some of his best tennis of the season right now. I’ve previously highlighted some of his second-set inconsistencies in Miami—particularly against Rinky Hijikata, Camilo Ugo Carabelli and Sebastian Korda—but his performances against Lorenzo Musetti and Grigor Dimitrov were dominant, and he has yet to drop a set all tournament. And after dismantling Dimitrov, Djokovic himself admitted that he’s feeling as good as he has since winning Olympic gold in Paris last summer.

When Djokovic is in that kind of form, backing him is a must.

Pick: Djokovic -3.5 Games (-156)