Peyton Stearns and Daria Kasatkina will meet for the third time at a major this year, at the US Open

On Wednesday, August 28, we’ll see a fun matchup between Peyton Stearns and Daria Kasatkina at the US Open. Both players are coming off straight-set wins in the first round: Stearns 6-1, 7-5 over Lesia Tsurenko; Kasatkina 6-2, 6-4 over Jaqueline Cristian. Both players should be feeling pretty good about their games. But Kasatkina has been going through it mentally recently, which is why I want to take a shot on Stearns at plus-money odds.

Before facing Cristian, Kasatkina had a serious case of the service yips. In her match against Caroline Dolehide in Washington D.C., Kasatkina had 14 double faults in a crushing three-set loss. She then had 11 double faults against Amanda Anisimova in Toronto, eight in a win over Ekaterina Alexandrova in Cincinnati, and then 11 in her loss to Taylor Townsend in the next round. Kasatkina only had three double faults against Cristian last match, but I don’t think this is a problem that goes away overnight. And if Kasatkina isn’t dialed in with the ball on her racquet, Stearns will make her pay.

This season, Stearns has a 36.6% break percentage. Last year, the American’s break percentage was up at 38.7%. She’s tremendous at putting pressure on her opponent’s serve, making this a nightmare of a matchup for Kasatkina.

Stearns is also capable of matching Kasatkina’s firepower from the baseline. Stearns has a really big forehand and is extremely aggressive with her ground strokes. She’s absolutely fearless on the court, and that should serve her well against the world No. 13. Stearns will go out there believing she can win. And it doesn’t hurt that she won in straight sets the last time these two played: 7-5, 6-2 at another major Roland Garros. And I think the conditions in New York suit Stearns a little better.

Kasatkina is 3-1 against Stearns, so there's that to consider. And two of those wins have come in the last 12 months, on hard courts (Cincinnati 2023; Australian Open 2024). But I believe this match that is closer to 50-50 than the odds suggest, and I think Kasatkina’s service woes make Stearns a favorite.

Ultimately, it was an easy decision to grab the American at these odds.

Pick: Stearns ML (+125)