Pick of the Day: Adrian Mannarino vs. Zizou Bergs, Rolex Paris Masters

On Wednesday, October 30, Adrian Mannarino will look to build on his impressive win over Tommy Paul at the Rolex Paris Masters. The 36-year-old is just 15-30 on the year, but is clearly energized by playing in front of his home crowd. And if he can come close to reaching the level we saw last match, he should be able to handle his business against Zizou Bergs.

Bergs really shouldn’t even be in this tournament, as he lost to Juncheng Shang in qualifying. However, an injury to Flavio Cobolli meant that Bergs got in as a lucky loser, and the Belgian was able to fight off French favorite Richard Gasquet, 6-3, 6-4. Well, this match will have a similar atmosphere, but the opponent will be a bit better. And I think the combination will get to Bergs.

Bergs is a very aggressive ball-striker and can occasionally overpower his opponents. But Bergs can also be a little erratic. When he’s off his game, he sprays unforced errors and gets wild from the baseline. That’s not something you want against Mannarino. The Frenchman is a backboard along the baseline and will have no problem playing defense for two-plus hours. Mannarino is capable of extracting errors out of Bergs' racquet, and when they come, they could pile up fast because of the raucous partisan crowd.

Mannarino’s serve should also be way more dangerous in Bercy than it is normally. These courts have been playing insanely fast all week, so I wouldn’t worry too much about Mannarino’s 73.9% hold percentage in 2024. Mannarino made 70.7% of his first serves against Paul, so he’s clearly in a bit of a zone right now. And if Mannarino does back up that serving performance against Bergs, it’s hard to imagine him losing this match. He’s very good about putting returns in play, so he should be able to give himself chances to break.

Realistically, with Mannarino playing on home soil, this is a coin flip at the absolute worst. But I genuinely think this match will be on Mannarino’s racquet. That’s why it’s worth jumping on the plus-money odds in their first ever encounter.

Pick: Mannarino To Win (+132)