Pick of the Day: Alex de Minaur vs. Alexander Zverev, Roland Garros

With Novak Djokovic’s withdrawal on Tuesday, we now know that the winner of a meeting between Alex De Minaur and Alexander Zverev will take on Casper Ruud in the semifinals at Roland Garros. Both players have had success against Ruud in the past, so they’re probably thinking that a finals appearance is very possible. But neither one of them can afford to get caught thinking too far ahead. This is a match that should be highly competitive and I believe it’s a little closer to a 50-50 than people might think. That said, while a heavy majority of tennis fans might like Zverev here, I’m playing De Minaur +5.5 games. And I think the Australian is live to win.

Zverev is obviously much younger than Djokovic, so he shouldn’t be at risk of getting injured after two grueling matches in a row. But the reality is that Zverev needed four hours and 17 minutes to beat Tallon Griekspoor and another four hours and 15 minutes to beat Holger Rune. And eight hours and 32 minutes on the court over two matches will take its toll on anyone. It might not be in the form of a torn meniscus, but Zverev might struggle to reach his best level.

A meeting with De Minaur is also not what you want after two physical matches in a row. He’s one of the most effective baseline grinders on the ATP Tour, and he has a propensity for making his matches as physical as possible. So, don’t be surprised if De Minaur really wears Zverev down here. De Minaur is the fastest player on the planet and is going to chase down absolutely everything. He can also really lengthen this match by hitting with depth and hitting to the Zverev forehand. The German has been reluctant to go big from the forehand side, making it hard for him to end rallies quickly. And the more long rallies we see in this match, the more likely it is that De Minaur will take Zverev’s legs.

De Minaur has also battled with Zverev in each of their last two meetings, so it’s not like this isn’t winnable for the world No. 11. De Minaur actually beat Zverev at the United Cup in January, and he took him to three sets in a competitive loss at Indian Wells in March. When you combine that with the big edge in rest that De Minaur has coming into this one, I just don’t see Zverev running De Minaur off the court. I also think that the changes we have seen to De Minaur’s game allow him to hang around in a matchup like this. He’s no longer an easy player to break, and he has the ability to turn things up and hit for power here and there. Given that, it’s no surprise he is having his most successful season on clay. Let’s hope he finishes it out with another good performance.

Pick: De Minaur +5.5 Games (-141)