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Novak Djokovic’s win over Lorenzo Musetti in the Monte Carlo Masters Round of 16 checked all of the boxes for drama. We saw Djokovic go down an early break in the first set, orchestrate a crowd booing him, give up a one-break lead in the second set and also look violently ill—before closing things out with a 7-5, 6-3 win. All in all, it was an impressive showing for Djokovic, as Musetti has been playing some inspired tennis over the last few weeks. Now, Djokovic will take on Alex de Minaur for a spot in the semifinals. I like this match to go Under the game total.

De Minaur beat Djokovic 6-4, 6-4 when the two met in the United Cup in January, so I’m expecting the Serbian to be out for revenge here. Djokovic hadn’t quite played his way into form at that point, and we all know that he can really struggle when he’s not there mentally or physically. But Djokovic played flawless tennis against Roman Safiullin in his first match in Monte Carlo, and he followed it up with the win over Musetti. Both players have more overall weapons than De Minaur, but he handled them with ease. I’m expecting this match to look somewhat similar.

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De Minaur is going to make Djokovic work hard in this match, as he runs down every ball and plays a very physical brand of tennis. However, even though de Minaur has improved his serve and been more aggressive when it’s time to finish points, I still think he lacks the overall pop you need to get the better of Djokovic on clay. The Serbian is just such a good defender that de Minaur will have to go out of his comfort zone to try and get shots by him. And when that happens, de Minaur can run into a lot of trouble.

Djokovic just has to be a little sharper with his serve in order to get the job done here. He got a little loose with the ball on his racquet against Musetti; if he does that against De Minaur, one of the game’s best returners, then he’ll run into some trouble. But I’d be surprised if he doesn’t get better from match to match. After beating Musetti, Djokovic noted that he’s nowhere near his best level. We may see that on Thursday.

(And if Djokovic takes another straight-sets loss to de Minaur? Well, that'll cash too.)

Pick: Under 21.5 Games (-123)