Aryna Sabalenka vs. Iga Swiatek, Mutua Madrid Open

If you listen to Tennis Bets Live, you probably know that I have Iga Swiatek to win the Mutua Madrid Open at +150 odds. I played that on the futures market before the tournament, and I don’t think it’d be wise to hedge off it as she prepares to face Aryna Sabalenka in the final. Swiatek is a massive -300 favorite to win the match, so I feel really good about where she stands. However, I completely understand if anybody wants to hedge that play. And the best way to do it might be to take Sabalenka +4.5 games or +1.5 sets, as that gives you the opportunity to potentially hit twice. But I know there’s plenty of people out there that are just looking to play this match on its own. And if that’s the case, I’d probably suggest laying 3.5 games with Swiatek.

I know Sabalenka beat Swiatek in three sets in the 2023 Madrid final, but the Pole has made some changes to her game. Swiatek has completely revamped her service motion, and that has resulted in the best year of her career as a server. Her hold percentage is a career-high 82.8% right now, which is up from 80.3% in 2023. She’s also making a career-high 67.8% of her first serves, which is up from 65.5% last year. Those might not seem like big jumps, but they make a big difference — especially considering Swiatek is still the best returner in the world. It’s no coincidence that Swiatek has won a career-high 88.6% of her matches in 2024.

If Swiatek is holding a little more easily than usual, she has the ability to wipe the floor with Sabalenka—especially on clay. I know Sabalenka is a two-time Madrid champion, while Swiatek has never won this event. But Sabalenka’s serve has looked a little shaky in the last week, and she needs to figure that out fast. If she’s double faulting and placing serves in the box against Swiatek, the Pole will break her serve regularly.

Swiatek has also made some changes to her forehand, making it a little quicker and more compact. That’s part of the reason she had some rough stretches from that side in 2023. But everything is looking more natural for her in 2024, and the changes she made to her forehand are especially important in faster tournaments. And this might be a clay-court event, but it plays quicker than the others because of the altitude. So, Sabalenka, who is already one of the most powerful players in the world, is going to force Swiatek to quickly come up with the goods in this match. And having a quicker forehand will allow her to do that. One of the only weaknesses in Swiatek’s game has been that powerful players can occasionally rush her process. But we should see less of that as Swiatek continues to progress.

Swiatek should be motivated to bounce back from last year’s loss to Sabalenka, and a motivated Swiatek is a dangerous one. We have seen her respond to losses with absolutely flawless performances in the past. Just look at what she has done to Coco Gauff since losing to her in Cincinnati. And Swiatek will be eager to win this title for the first time in her career. That said, I like Swiatek’s chances of winning somewhat easily in this match. Her ability to return makes a lopsided set very likely.

Lean: Swiatek -3.5 Games (-164)