Pick of the Day: Barbora Krejcikova vs. Jelena Ostapenko, Wimbledon

On Tuesday in the Wimbledon quarterfinals, Jelena Ostapenko will take on Barbora Krejcikova in an interesting clash of styles. Ostapenko very much employs a “see ball, hit ball” strategy, looking to clobber every shot that comes her way. Meanwhile, Krejcikova has a ton of variety and likes to switch up the pace and keep her opponents on their heels. The power game is usually the one that wins out on a grass-court surface. But my favorite play here is a bet on Krejcikova to win a set.

Ostapenko is 4-2 against Krejcikova, and the Latvian has won their last three meetings. However, it’s really hard to weigh the head-to-head series heavily. Krejcikova’s game has been in a bad place over the last few years, but she has finally started to turn a corner and start playing to her potential. I know her record suggests she played well in 2022 and 2023, but her game was definitely not where she wanted it to be. It's getting closer in London. And that has to be somewhat scary for Ostapenko, as she was barely able to beat an out-of-form Krejcikova in a grass-court match in 2023. That ended up being a 7-6 (8), 6-4 win for the Latvian, but it easily could have gone the other way.

Krejcikova just has a lot of tools that can throw opponents off. She’s certainly aggressive and will go for some shots, but she also mixes in quite a bit of slice, and she knows when to come to the net—very effective tactics on grass. Krejcikova also has some good mobility, so she can track down a lot of shots. And making power players like Ostapenko hit shots at different heights, and also play extra ball, is a good way to elicit unforced errors.

Krejcikova also had a great crash course in her last match. She got to face Danielle Collins, a similar player to Ostapenko. Both players go for broke with almost every shot, but Krejcikova was able to keep her cool and find a way through. Now she can use a similar strategy to try and knock out Ostapenko. Perhaps it won’t be enough in the end, but I’d be surprised if this is a straight-set win for the Latvian.

Pick: Krejcikova +1.5 Sets (-154)