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It wasn’t that long ago that Ons Jabeur was a player bettors were blindly fading. The Tunisian really struggled towards the end of 2023, and the start of 2024 wasn’t much better. That’s ultimately why Jabeur has been available at such favorable odds lately. But she is really starting to find her game, with wins in seven of her last 10 matches.

With that in mind, you might not get many more opportunities to play Jabeur as a small moneyline favorite against players outside the Top 50. That’s a big part of the reason I’m playing Jabeur to beat Clara Tauson in the Round of 16 at Roland Garros.

Tauson is playing some very good tennis lately, so this match won’t be easy. The Dane has won six of her last seven matches, and one of those victories was an upset of 2017 Roland Garros champion Jelena Ostapenko. However, Tauson really only has one speed to her game: She’s out there to try and obliterate the ball from both the forehand and backhand sides. And while that means she can hit her opponents off the court when she’s playing well, it also gives her a small margin for error. It’s also not the best strategy on slower clay courts. Having a little variety is important on the dirt.

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Variety won’t be an issue for Jabeur. The world No. 9 is one of the trickiest players on the planet, as she loves to go to her slice and drop shots. Jabeur is also capable of going big when she needs to, and she also has the ability to hit with heavy topspin. With that in mind, Jabeur should do a good job of moving Tauson around the court and keeping her guessing. Jabeur is just going to need to find a way to be a little more effective with her serve. If she’s not making first serves, Tauson will punish her seconds.

Overall, this is a match Jabeur should win, and you’re getting a good number on it. But one thing to keep an eye on is the weather. If this match ends up being played with a closed roof, you might want to pass on this bet or cash out. The conditions change quite a bit when these matches end up being played indoors, and the lower bounces would favor Tauson. But as of right now, the Sunday forecast doesn’t call for rain.

Pick: Jabeur ML (-145)