Pick of the Day: Danielle Collins vs. Caroline Garcia, Miami

Danielle Collins has made it clear that this will be her last year on the WTA Tour, but she’s still playing some high-level tennis. She's only the 53rd-ranked player in the world right now, but her best game is still tough to beat. Collins has flashed that form in wins over Anastasia Potapova, Elina Avanesyan and Sorana Cirstea this week. Now Collins will look to advance to the Miami Open semifinals by defeating Caroline Garcia on Wednesday, March 27. And I like the American’s chances.

Garcia is coming off wins over Naomi Osaka and Coco Gauff in her last two matches, so she’s clearly in a nice groove right now. However, Garcia’s season-long numbers still leave a lot to be desired. Her hold percentage is under 80.0% for the first time since 2021, and her break percentage is the lowest it has been in her entire career. Both are extremely worrisome, but the serving is the bigger issue.

Garcia isn’t the most reliable baseliner in the world, so it’s important for her to be holding easily. Well, she hasn’t been doing that over the last six months or so, and that’s why her game has fallen off significantly. And I don’t trust the good serving we have seen from her this week. Even if it does show up again, Collins is breaking at a ridiculous 41.6% this year. That’s a career-high mark for her, but she has always been an elite returner. So, she’s going to do everything she can to get Garcia on her heels when the Frenchwoman is serving.

Collins is also just playing in an atmosphere that she enjoys quite a bit. Collins was born in St. Petersburg and trained at IMG Academy, and she even went to the University of Florida before transferring to Virginia. She’s very much a Florida girl, giving her an edge when it comes to the conditions. She'll also have the fans firmly in her corner. So, I’m playing Collins to cover a small game spread here. And I wouldn’t be surprised if this is somewhat lopsided: Collins is 3-0 in three career meetings with Garcia, and she's never even dropped a set.

Pick: Collins -2.5 Games (-136)