Pick of the Day: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Ben Shelton, Roland Garros

Two big servers will clash at Roland Garros on Friday, May 31, when world No. 21 Felix Auger-Aliassime takes on world No. 15 Ben Shelton. This will be the first match-up between these two talented players, and it’ll be interesting to watch them battle it out on clay. These are two players that thrive in quicker conditions, where it’s nearly impossible to get their serves back in play. However, we’re going to watch them try to dig deep and win in much grittier conditions. That ultimately makes it hard not to like Auger-Aliassime to emerge victorious, as he has already proven himself on the dirt.

You only have to go back to early May to find the last time Auger-Aliassime made a clay-court final. The 23-year-old had a lot of injury luck along the way, but he had a real shot at winning a title in Madrid. Auger-Aliassime ultimately lost that match to Andrey Rublev, 4-6, 7-5, 7-5, but he showed that his serve is a weapon on any court and the slightly slower conditions give him a little more juice as a baseliner. That’s why Auger-Aliassime is an impressive 42-36 on clay in his career, and he’s 11-7 on the dirt over the last 52 weeks. On top of that, Auger-Aliassime has won two Challenger-level events on clay, and he made the final in three others.

Shelton has been better on clay than expected earlier in his career, and he actually won a clay-court title in Houston in early April. But the green clay in America is nothing like the red stuff in Europe. That said, the American is learning on the fly and trying to adapt. And one thing that is abundantly clear is that Shelton needs to be much better as a returner on clay. His break percentage over the last 52 weeks is just 17.4% on the dirt; Auger-Aliassime’s is up at 23.7%.

With Shelton being a little shaky as a returner, I ultimately find it hard to believe he’ll beat Auger-Aliassime. The Canadian is really good about hitting his spots, whether he’s racking up aces or just setting himself up for serve-plus-ones. Auger-Aliassime should have a pretty easy time holding throughout this match—he’ll just need to set himself up for some break-point opportunities, and enough of those should come. Shelton’s serve has been far from perfect thus far, and he hasn’t faced anybody as talented as the Canadian.

Overall, this is a spot in which backing the favorite and biting the bullet on the juice makes sense. Shelton should continue to get better as he plays more clay-court matches, but beating an in-form Auger-Aliassime is a tough ask.

Pick: Auger-Aliassime ML (-154)