Pick of the Day: Francisco Cerundolo vs. Novak Djokovic, Roland Garros

From late Saturday into Sunday morning, Novak Djokovic earned a 7-5, 6-7 (6), 2-6, 6-3, 6-0 victory over Lorenzo Musetti. The two were on the court until 3:07 am local time, the latest a match has ever ended at Roland Garros. With that in mind, I have some doubts about whether or not Djokovic will be close to 100% when he faces Francisco Cerundolo in the fourth round. That’s why I’m playing the Argentinean to cover a massive 7.5-game spread.

Early Sunday morning, Casper Ruud took to X to detail the process players go through after a match. Things don’t just end once the match ends. Djokovic probably spent another couple of hours doing treatment on his body, meaning he likely didn’t sleep much after the match. On top of that, Djokovic will be facing Cerundolo in the day session. So it’s not like he’s getting a full two days to recover, either. Considering Djokovic is so process oriented, I just don’t think it’s safe to assume he’ll play like his normal self out there. And if that’s not enough, this is also a tricky on-court matchup for the 24-time Grand Slam champion.

Cerundolo is one of the most erratic players on the ATP Tour. He either performs at the level of a Top 10 player, or he looks like he belongs on the Challenger Tour. The reason for that is that Cerundolo plays bold tennis from the baseline. He has one of the biggest forehands on the planet, but he can occasionally be off the mark with that shot. His backhand is a little sturdier, but it isn’t as big of a weapon. And his serve is a bit shaky. His hold percentage has never been at 80.0% or higher, and that’s where Djokovic could run away with this match. But I actually think that there are some similarities between Cerundolo and Musetti, which is why I see Djokovic struggling a bit with this matchup.

If Cerundolo can avoid some very sloppy service games, I think he can disturb Djokovic in the ways Musetti did. In that last match, Djokovic was having trouble hitting through Musetti because of the Italian’s ability to cover the court. Well, Cerundolo also has great mobility. And Musetti wasn’t just pushing the ball back in play, he was letting it rip as often as possible. Cerundolo will do the same thing. I also thought that Djokovic looked like he was getting winded rather easily at times. Well, if Cerundolo is striking the ball as cleanly as he can, Djokovic will be on the move quite a bit.

Overall, Djokovic should find a way to get through Cerundolo because his tennis IQ is a lot higher. That means Djokovic will be more trustworthy in high-leverage moments. But I do think the 25-year-old is capable of winning a set here. Doing so would make it hard for him not to cover the game spread. And the reality is that even a 6-4, 6-3, 6-4 loss would do the trick. So, as long as Djokovic doesn’t completely dominate, this bet should cash.

Pick: Cerundolo +7.5 Games (-138)