Pick of the Day: Ons Jabeur vs. Coco Gauff, Roland Garros

On Tuesday, June 4, Ons Jabeur faces Coco Gauff for a spot in the semifinals at Roland Garros. The last time these two played, Gauff beat Jabeur to a pulp, earning a 6-0, 6-1 win at the 2023 WTA Finals. But that tournament was played during a stretch in which Jabeur was nowhere near her top level. A lot of things factored into Jabeur experiencing a significant drop-off, but the world No. 9 has won eight of her last 11 matches and is starting to look like the player that was a three-time Grand Slam runner-up. With that in mind, I think the oddsmakers are offering an extremely favorable price on Jabeur to simply win a set here.

You can currently get Jabeur at plus-money odds to win a set in the quarters, and that almost seems too good to be true. When Jabeur was at the very peak of her powers, she was right below the tier that includes Iga Swiatek, Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina. Well, she’s looking very close to playing at that level again, and that’s right around where I’d put Gauff in the women’s game. I just don’t think there’s much that separates these two, especially with the way Gauff has played in 2024.

I know Gauff hasn’t dropped a single set at Roland Garros thus far, but she hasn’t exactly faced the stiffest competition. Her run has included wins over Julia Avdeeva, Tamara Zidansek, Dayana Yastremska and Elisabetta Cocciaretto. None of those players possess any type of game-changing ability, and a lot of them beat themselves against Gauff. And that’s one thing you don’t want to do against a player that is lacking in confidence with her serve and forehand.

Jabeur will look to exploit those weaknesses as often as possible. She’s going to take cuts when returning, as she did in an impressive straight-set win over Clara Tauson last round. And Jabeur is going to test the Gauff forehand as often as possible. The one thing that hurts Ons in this matchup is that Gauff is one of the best movers on tour, so she will track down a lot of Jabeur’s tricky slice shots and drop shots. But if Jabeur is striking the ball as cleanly as she can, she’ll take advantage of having Gauff on the move and off balance.

Overall, I just don’t think the odds here match up to what we’ve seen in Paris thus far, so I think you need to play the number. And I’ll also be throwing a little something on Jabeur to win outright. She has defeated Gauff twice in her career and I don’t think it’d be that shocking if she were to do it again. Jabeur belongs near the top of the women’s game, and is starting to play like it.

Pick: Jabeur +1.5 Sets (+115)