On Saturday, June 1, Paula Badosa will take on world No. 2 Aryna Sabalenka at Roland Garros. This is a meeting between two very close friends, which could make for an interesting on-court battle. These players should be very familiar with one another, which is why I’m expecting a highly competitive match. And wouldn't you know that the Over, on a 19.5-game total, is available at reasonable -138 odds.
It’s hard to overlook the fact that Badosa was giving Sabalenka a run for her money in Stuttgart last month. The Spaniard had to retire from that match at 3-3 in the third set, which was a shame considering she won the second set, 6-4. But that match hadn’t even ended and went Over 19.5 games, and each of their previous two clay-court matches went Over this mark (both being in Stuttgart).
The interesting thing about Stuttgart is that it plays quite a bit faster than Roland Garros. Those conditions would favor a power player like Sabalenka, but Badosa was able to keep things close, and she should be able to do the same on the slower stuff. Badosa has a big serve and a lot of power herself, so it’s not like she doesn’t like faster conditions. Overall, she has won nearly 70% of her career matches on clay. This is her best surface, and I feel that her ability to move well on the terre battue will be a real asset here.
It wouldn’t be surprising if the Belarusian were to emerge victorious in this match, of course. After all, she’s as high as a -380 favorite in some spots. She’s also behind only Iga Swiatek on the odds board to win this entire tournament. But at the same time, I don’t see Sabalenka cruising to a win. Sabalenka called Badosa “such a great fighter” earlier this week. That fight should help bettors cash some Over tickets.
Pick: Over 19.5 Games (-138)