On Sunday, September 1, Casper Ruud and Taylor Fritz will battle for a spot in the quarterfinals of the US Open. Despite the fact that Ruud is a three-time Grand Slam runner-up, and is four spots ahead of Fritz in the ATP rankings, the Norwegian is a huge underdog. Overall, it’s not that surprising that the oddsmakers view the American as a favorite. Fritz has looked great since the start of this tournament, his game translates perfectly to this surface and he’s going to have the whole crowd pulling for him. However, Ruud has largely proven that he is a better player than Fritz. That makes it hard to lay off Ruud getting 5.5 games, and I’m also going to sprinkle the moneyline at a nice price.
Fritz’s slight edge on this surface is hard to deny. The American has a career winning percentage of 60.1% on hard courts, and that number is up at 64.9% over the last 52 weeks. Meanwhile, Ruud’s career winning percentage on hard courts is 58.1%. But where things get interesting is that Ruud is 29-14 on this surface over the last 52 weeks. That’s a 67.4% winning percentage. The Norwegian is starting to win with regularity on these courts, and that shouldn’t be a shock to anyone. Ruud has worked hard to improve his serve and backhand, and he also plays more aggressive tennis than ever.
Ruud is also 14-7 at the US Open and has made it to the final of this event. Fritz is just 10-10 at this Slam, and his best result is a quarter-final appearance. A lot of people say that Americans have a home-court advantage in Flushing Meadows, but there’s also a lot of pressure on them to perform. That can lead to crippling nerves on the court. Ruud won't have to deal with that. He’s a proven performer at this level, and not much was expected of him coming into the tournament.