Pick of the Day: Varvara Gracheva vs. Coco Gauff, US Open

Coco Gauff is an overwhelming favorite to win her opening-round match against Varvara Gracheva at the 2024 US Open. The American has been struggling coming into this tournament, but she’s the defending champion, and the vibes in New York could help get her back on track.

But it’s hard to ignore what we saw from Gauff in the months leading up to the US Open. So much so that I think it’s worth taking a shot on Gracheva to find at least a little success in this match.

I’m not backing Gracheva to win a set or cover a game spread, but I like her to win at least six games. The juice on that bet isn’t too bad. Gracheva won two qualifying matches in Cincinnati and then beat Ajla Tomljanovic in the first round. She also took a set off—wait for it—world No. 1 Iga Swiatek in her second-round loss. If Gracheva was able to push Iga, she could be able to at least make a small dent in the scoreboard against this version of Gauff.

Gauff’s hold percentage is down from 2023 to 2024, and her double fault percentage is way up. Gracheva will have her chances to break. Gauff’s forehand is also as big of a problem as ever. The American has been guilty of dumping the ball into the net or overhitting going for small targets. Unless she plays with more shape to find the court and rely on her elite defense, she’s going to continue to have exceptionally high unforced error counts. That makes it hard to buy into her winning matches convincingly.

There’s no doubt in my mind that Gauff will eventually figure out her game. She’s a tremendous talent and a fiery competitor, and she often finds ways to win without playing her best tennis. But I’m just not sure she’s in a place where she’s ready to wipe the court with somebody, so I’m putting it to the test and putting a little something on this.

The Pick: Gracheva Over 5.5 Games Won (-140)