Rafael Nadal vs. Jiri Lehecka, Mutua Madrid Open

On Tuesday, April 30, Rafael Nadal’s comeback tour continues with a match against Jiri Lehecka in the Mutua Madrid Open. Nadal is coming off a 6-1, 6-7 (5), 6-3 win over Pedro Cachin in his last match—a 3:06 battle. It was nice to see Nadal, whose 2024 season has been shaped by health concerns, find a way through a long, physical match. However, it is a little concerning that Nadal needed to dig that deep in order to get by a player of Cachin’s caliber. And that makes it hard to believe in him against Lehecka.

Nadal has had some trouble in longer matches since returning, so conquering Cachin is at least a step in the right direction. But Nadal is now facing a much more talented player, and he’s doing so after a grueling match. It’ll be interesting to see how the Spaniard’s body holds up, as he’ll need to be close to 100% in order to defeat Lehecka.

Lehecka isn’t known as a clay-court player, but he has won some Challenger-level events on the dirt. He’s also coming off a straight-set win over Thiago Monteiro, who beat Stefanos Tsitsipas this week in Madrid. Monteiro is the definition of a clay-court specialist, so that was a crash course on the surface for Lehecka. Now, the Czech will rely on his tools to try and overpower Nadal.

After beating Cachin, Nadal said himself that Lehecka hits a heavier ball than Alex de Minaur. That was Nadal’s opponent before facing Cachin, and de Minaur beat the Spaniard when the two met in Barcelona. Lehecka is going to play aggressive tennis here, with the ability to pummel shots from both wings. Doing that can wear this version of Nadal down.

Lehecka is also a little more reliable with the ball on his racquet than each of Nadal’s previous two opponents. That’s especially important considering Nadal is struggling to find his own serve. He was broken four times in the final two sets against Cachin, and ha got himself in trouble a bit when it’s his turn to serve. If he does that against Lehecka, it’ll be extremely difficult for him to win.

Overall, there’s a lot working against the Spaniard coming into this match, so I think it’d be wise to take advantage of the spot by fading him.

Pick: Lehecka ML (-110)