US Open Women's Betting Preview: Is this the year for Jessica Pegula? 

There's a lot to unpack when it comes to this year's US Open.

Aryna Sabalenka just won Cincinnati, defeating Toronto champion Jessica Pegula in the final. Sabalenka is now the betting favorite to win her third career major in Flushing Meadows. Considering the Belarusian is a two-time Australian Open champion, the oddsmakers prefer her over world No. 1 Iga Swiatek on hard courts. But Swiatek has won the US Open before, and it’s not like hard-court success has escaped her. Meanwhile, Coco Gauff is the defending champion, but the American heads to this event on a poor run of form. It’s also hard to rule out Elena Rybakina, who is one of the biggest servers on tour. This is also an event that feels open to a number of players outside these four.

With that said—keep reading for our US Open betting analysis and predictions. This is going to be an exhilarating two weeks, so you’ll want to get in on the action.

Fliers

Paula Badosa (40-1): Badosa is starting to play the type of tennis that allowed her to rise to No. 2 in the world—just two years ago. The Spaniard won D.C. in early August, lost a tight match against Jelena Ostapenko in the second round in Toronto, and then went all the way to the semifinals in Cincinnati. She enters this tournament in as good of form as anyone, so she’s going to need to be taken seriously.

Badosa’s serve is still a massive weapon, as she’s sixth on the WTA Tour in hard-court hold percentage this year. Meanwhile, Badosa is also striking the ball cleanly from the baseline, and her movement has been solid enough. She does occasionally suffer setbacks, seemingly tightening up at any moment. But Badosa is healthy right now, and that means a deep run in Flushing Meadows is possible. I think she can win enough matches to set up some nice hedging opportunities. Or, you can just grab her to win her quarter.

Amanda Anisimova (75-1): Anisimova is another player that is playing some great tennis recently. The American reached the D.C. quarterfinals as a qualifier, then followed it up by going all the way to the final in Toronto. Anisimova even took a set off a red-hot Jessica Pegula in that match. She pulled out of Cincinnati, but she should be ready to rock at the U.S. Open.

Anisimova is a high-variance player, as she swings big from the baseline. She’s either going to hit her opponent off the court or beat herself with some bad misses. But she is genuinely as talented as anybody on the WTA Tour and is capable of beating anyone in these conditions. At her long odds, it’s worth taking a shot and hoping for a long run.

Fades

Naomi Osaka (18-1): A lot of people are expecting another breakthrough from Osaka. After all, the 26-year-old is a two-time US Open champion, and has always had the ability to bully opponents with her baseline power. But Osaka hasn’t been able to find a groove since returning as a full-time player on the WTA Tour, and she comes into this match after having lost four of her last six matches.

Osaka’s movement needs to be a lot sharper in order for her to regain her peak form. She too often finds herself hitting shots without her feet set. She’s also not nearly as good as a returner as she was in her prime. All in all, I wouldn’t want to have any money on Osaka to win a major right now. Perhaps 2025 will be the year she truly gets going, as she should get better now that she is fully committed again.

Pick To Win

Jessica Pegula (12-1): I’m a little nervous about Pegula being fatigued heading into this tournament. The American is coming off a title run in Toronto and then went all the way to the final in Cincinnati. Pegula has played more tennis than anyone over the last couple of weeks—but she has also played better than anyone in that span, and it just feels like she’s due for her maiden Grand Slam title.

Pegula will undoubtedly feel a lot of pressure playing this event, but it’s also the major that suits her game the best. Pegula has fast, compact strokes from the baseline, so she’s able to deal with the quick conditions and still generate her own power. The American has also done a lot of work to rebuild her serve, and it has been clicking over the last month or so.

It’s always hard not choosing a player like Swiatek or Sabalenka to win a Grand Slam on the women’s side, but the odds just aren’t good enough to take either of them. And we have seen over the last year or so that there are plenty of players that can take those two down on a good day. That said, I’d rather go with a juicy payout for a player that has been operating on their level lately.