Can a Jannik Sinner-less Italy three-peat the Davis Cup at home?

Editor's Note: This preview was updated to reflect Carlos Alcaraz's withdrawal.

We’ve had the WTA Finals. We’ve had the ATP Finals. Now it’s time for the true finale of the 2025 season—for real this time. The eight-nation Davis Cup Final begins on Tuesday, and concludes on Sunday, on indoor hard courts in Bologna, Italy.

The quarterfinal schedule looks like this:

• Tuesday: France vs. Belgium
• Wednesday: Italy vs. Austria
• Thursday: Spain vs. Czechia and Argentina vs. Germany

Italy is the two-time defending champion, but the team will be without its MVP from 2023 and 2024, Jannik Sinner. In the grand tradition of top-ranked players, he has done his duty for his country and decided, at least for this year, to prioritize his health. His rival Carlos Alcaraz chose to do the same thing when he pulled out on Monday to avoid aggravating an injury he sustained in Turin.

How will Sinner’s and Alcaraz’s absences affect the competition, and is there a team that could topple the Italians on home soil? Here are three things to watch for over the next six days in Bologna.

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Italy won’t have its best player, but it will still showcase its depth

Italy has been the country of the 2020s. Sinner has risen to No. 1. Jasmine Paolini has skyrocketed into the Top 5. Together they’ve brought the Davis Cup and Billie Jean King Cup back to the their nation for the first time in years.

This year’s Davis Cup team is a showcase for how deep Italy’s talent pool is, in singles and doubles. The team is also missing its other Top 10 player, Lorenzo Musetti, but it can still field three solid singles entrants in Flavio Cobolli, Lorenzo Sonego and Matteo Berrettini. Just as important, they have a doubles team, in Simone Bolelli and Andrea Vavassori, who are coming off a semifinal appearance at the ATP Finals in Turin.

Maybe most important, to knock off Italy, a team will have to do in front of their home fans in Bologna.

Read more: Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz advocate for Davis Cup to be held every other year

Who might make an unlikely hero?

Davis Cup has traditionally been a place where the sport’s second-tier players can grab a share of surprise glory. For instance, when Serbia won its first title in 2010, Novak Djokovic was the best player, but he still needed Viktor Troicki to win the deciding rubber.

With the ATP’s two biggest stars, Sinner and Alcaraz, absent, there’s plenty of room for someone to step into the history books in 2025.

Italy has Cobolli, Sonego and Berrettini, and they’ll be heavy favorites in their quarterfinal with Austria. But at some point they may also need help from their top-notch doubles team, Bolelli and Vavassori.

Alexander Zverev won an Olympic gold medal for Germany, but, like Alcaraz, he doesn’t have a Davis Cup title. If he can lock up his matches at No. 1 singles this week, his team might be able to back him up. He’ll likely have Jan-Lennard Struff at No. 2 singles, and a perennial Top 20 team, Tim Puetz and Kevin Krawietz, playing for the doubles point.

Read more: Alexander Zverev dubs 2025 "incredibly unsatisfying" after ATP Finals exit

Argentina may care about Davis Cup more than any other nation, and its team hasn’t won since 2016. No. 1 Francisco Cerundolo is 7-4 in the competition, and he says it brings out the best in him. But the Argies’ secret weapon may be Horacio Zeballos, a Top 5 doubles player. Their quarterfinal with Germany should be spirited.

As mentioned above, the Czechs, with Lehecka and Mensik leading the way in singles, have a strong lineup. If they can find a way past Spain in the quarters, they could be a surprise challenger for the title.

Who is going to win?

I don’t think there’s a clear favorite.

Italy is at home, has won the last two years, and may have the strongest mix of singles and doubles players. But Sinner, who was a lock at No. 1, and could fill in passably in doubles, will obviously be missed, as will Musetti. Sonego is hardly a sure thing if he plays No. 2 singles.

Spain may struggle without Alcaraz. Jaume Munar, ranked 36th, is now their top singles player, and they have a tough draw—Czechia in the quarters, the winner of Germany-Argentina in the semis, and possibly Italy in the final. Munar is a respectable No. 1, but the indoor hard courts in Bologna may not help him against Lehecka or Mensik. Argentina, Germany, and Italy will likely all have better doubles teams.

Argentina and Germany should be evenly matched in the quarters, and the winner will be competitive with Spain or Czechia in the semis. Both teams have good No. 1 singles players and doubles teams, and both may feel like their chances have vastly improved with Alcaraz’s withdrawal.

And how about France? Rinderknech, Moutet, Mpetshi Perricard, Bonzi and Herbert should get past Belgium in the quarters. After that, they would need some inspired play to upset Italy.

Final: Italy vs. Germany

Winner: Italy