2025 Miami Open men's preview: Jack Draper shoots for Sunshine Double

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What did we learn about the ATP in Indian Wells? Among other things, we discovered that, when Jannik Sinner is away, the second-tier can come out to play—and maybe even move up to the top tier. No one is as reliable as the Italian at maintaining order: Carlos Alcaraz is too prone to off days, Novak Djokovic seems to finally be fading, and Alexander Zverev is still mumbling to himself about the Australian Open final.

Which means that, with Sinner out again, the upstarts could be free to roam in Miami. Will any of them do what Jack Draper and Holger Rune did last week? Here’s a look at three highlights from the draw.

Alcaraz and Djokovic are finally in different quarters—but how much does it matter now?

As far as draws go, the Spaniard and the Serb have haven’t been able to get away from each other in 2025. They were in the same quarter in Melbourne, the same half in Doha, and the same quarter in Indian Wells. You’ll recall, though, that they only met once in those three tournaments. In Doha and Indian Wells, Djokovic failed to win a match.

Can we expect more from the living legend as he approaches his 38th birthday? Djokovic’s road looks like this: Either Rinky Hijikata or Hamad Medjodovic to start; Alex Michelsen in the third round; Lorenzo Musetti or Felix Auger Aliassime in the fourth; and Daniil Medvedev in the quarters. Michelsen’s serve, and a pro-American audience, could make for an early test.

Alcaraz may have the slightly easier road. The first seed he could face is Brandon Nakashima; his round of 16 opponent might be Grigor Dimitrov, who he just rolled in Indian Wells; and either Casper Ruud or Tommy Paul look like possible quarterfinal foes.

Also: If Nick Kyrgios can find his way through three matches, he would earn his first meeting with Alcaraz.

Djokovic is a six-time champion in Miami, but right now he’s probably taking his career one match at a time. Alcaraz won this tournament in 2022, and hasn’t been back to the final since. He may be more motivated this year after losing in Indian Wells.

Is there another Draper in the house?

Seven men have completed the Sunshine Double: Courier, Chang, Sampras, Rios, Agassi, Federer (three times), and Djokovic (four times). At the moment, the relatively unknown Draper’s name would seem to be an unlikely addition to that list. But we don’t know how good the 23-year-old is going to be, or how many big titles he’s going to win.

Overall, Draper should be pleased with his draw. He’s in the same quarter as a slumping Zverev, and the first seed he could play is No. 25 Alexei Popyrin. But he could face a tough opener against Jakub Mensik, a hulking, 19-year-old Czech who would seem to be due for a breakout win.

Looking elsewhere, is there anyone who might play the same role in Miami that Draper played in Indian Wells? Three Czechs stand out as possible dark-horse performers: Mensik, Jiri Lehecka, and Tomas Machac.

First-round match to watch: 18-year-old Joao Fonseca and 19-year-old Learner Tien will reprise their title match from last year’s Next Gen Finals. Fonseca was routed by Draper in Indian Wells, but he bounced back and won a strong Challenger event this past week in Phoenix.

The Americans take their last swings on hard courts

Since 2004, only one U.S. man has won Miami: John Isner in 2018. In 2023 and 2024, only two Americans, Fritz and Christopher Eubanks, reached the quarters.

That record of futility is a little bit of a surprise, for a couple of reasons. One, at this point in the season, after at least three weeks in the States, the European players are longing for home. At the same time, the Americans are theoretically motivated to play well, because they know they’ll spend the next two months slipping and sliding through the dreaded clay season.

In 2025, the ATP’s American contingent should be ready to take one last big swing on their home hard courts. The top names—Fritz, Paul, Tiafoe, Shelton—came into the season with major ambitions, but collectively they had a disappointing Indian Wells. Their Miami draws give them a chance at redemption. Tiafoe is near Zverev; Fritz is the top seed in his quarter, and could meet Shelton in the round of 16; Paul has landed in Ruud’s section.

The Americans also have strength in numbers these days:

• Nakashima may get a shot at Alcaraz, and Michelsen may meet Djokovic, in the third round.
• Marcos Giron, a force in Indian Wells, starts against Jordan Thompson.
• Eubanks and Reilly Opelka meet in the first round; the winner plays Rune.
• Jenson Brooksby, after a promising Indian Wells, starts against Roman Safiullin
• Sebastian Korda, who has played well in Miami in the past, would seem to be due to play well again