Wimbledon men's final preview: Will Carlos Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner share another epic?

“I’m very happy to share once again the court with Carlos,” Sinner said after his semifinal win on Friday.

The tennis world, and the larger sports world, agree. We might even ask ourselves what we’ve done to deserve the rise of this rivalry, so soon after the end of our Big 3 Golden Era. If Sinner and Alcaraz can come close to reproducing their Roland Garros classic on Centre Court, we may remember this as a golden men’s tennis summer of its own, up there with Borg and McEnroe in the early 80s, and Federer and Nadal in the late-aughts.

Alcaraz likes it, too.

“I think the things that we are doing right now I think is great for tennis,” he says. “We just fight [to] engage more people to watch tennis. We’re just fighting for the tennis to be bigger.”

He’s the favorite. He won here two times in a row. He’s again in the final. It's very tough to beat him on grass, but I like these challenges. Jannik Sinner

So what are the chances we get another epic, and who should be favored this time around?

On the first question, there wouldn’t seem to be any reason the Italian and the Spaniard won’t give us a highly-competitive, top-level contest. Each has had an earlier hiccup in this tournament, but each seems to have put it behind him.

Alcaraz’s issue was his erratic level of play in the early going, which saw him need five sets to subdue 38-year-old Fabio Fognini, and four sets to beat Jan-Lennard Struff. Since dropping the opening set to Andrey Rublev in the fourth round, though, the defending champion has rounded closer to peak form. He said he starting feeling more comfortable with his serve late in that match, and it showed in his wins over Cam Norrie and Taylor Fritz. By the semis, Alcaraz was feeling confident enough in his serve to start following it to the net.

“I just serving really good,” he said. “I just feeling really comfortable doing serve and volley…just not letting the opponent to get into the point, to get the good rhythm.”

Sinner’s issue was physical—and it put him on the brink of defeat. In his fourth-round match against Grigor Dimitrov, he slipped and hurt his right elbow. That, and Dimitrov’s excellent play, left Sinner in a two-set hole. But the injury bug came to his rescue in the end, when Dimitrov blew out his right pec muscle in the third set and couldn’t continue. Sinner hasn’t dropped a set since, and while he has worn a sleeve on his right arm, he hasn’t shown any ill effects from it.

“No issue for Sunday,” Sinner says of his elbow. “I think we are handling this small problem at the moment very well. Today I felt quite good already.”

When Djokovic was asked to pick a winner in this match, he took Alcaraz by a small but seemingly definite margin. I’ll take him as well, with slightly less assurance.

Alcaraz has played two Wimbledon finals already, and won both times; he’s 5-0 in Grand Slam finals. He’s 8-4 against Sinner, has won their last five matches, and won their only previous meeting at Wimbledon, in 2022, in four sets. At the moment he’s playing with the easy confidence of someone who knows he can raise his game whenever he needs to. Throw in a serve that has looked new and improved during this grass season, and he becomes a solid favorite, even against the world No. 1.

“Just can’t wait for Sunday,” Alcaraz says.

Sinner sounded a little more cautious about the battle ahead.

“It’s going to be difficult, I know that,” Sinner says. “But I’m looking forward to it, no? He’s the favorite. He won here two times in a row. He’s again in the final. It's very tough to beat him on grass, but I like these challenges.”

Sinner does have an edge in a couple of ways. He’s much less prone to rough patches of play, or a total off day, than Alcaraz is. With his ability to flatten out his strokes and get the first strike in, he’s more of a natural fast-court player than a clay-courter. And while this will be his first Wimbledon final, he was also playing his first Roland Garros final last month, and he came one point from winning that.

“I’m pretty sure he's going to take a lot of things from the French Open final, that he’s going to be better,” Alcaraz says of Sinner.

Sinner has been the best male player of the past two years—against everyone but Alcaraz. What we’ve learned from their matches is that his best brings out the best in the Spaniard. Alcaraz needs to find his highest gear to surpass his rival. Unfortunately for Sinner, he finds it every time.

“Sharing the big tournaments with Jannik,” Alcaraz says. “I think it’s great, or just playing in the finals of the tournaments and in final rounds of the tournament. I think it’s great, or at least for me.”

Winner: Alcaraz