MATCH POINT: Aryna Sabalenka defeats Jasmine Paolini, sets Stuttgart final with Jelena Ostapenko

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Three weeks ago, after winning Miami, Aryna Sabalenka increased her lead at No. 1 past 3,000 ranking points for the first time, to 3,071.

And this week, after reaching her fifth final of the year in Stuttgart, Sabalenka keeps growing that lead—not only did she improve her performance at the WTA 500 indoor clay-court event compared to last year, when she was a quarterfinalist, but Swiatek went from being a semifinalist last year to a quarterfinalist this year.

With that, Sabalenka’s lead at No. 1 is now at a new personal best of 3,385 ranking points—she has 10,768 points, and Swiatek has 7,383.

It’s the biggest ranking point lead for a No. 1 on the WTA rankings since Wimbledon last year, the weeks of July 1st and 8th, 2024, when then-No. 1 Swiatek had a 3,642-point lead over then-No. 2 Coco Gauff, 11,585 to 7,943 (Sabalenka was ranked No. 3 at the time).

Sabalenka has already reached five finals this year, winning Brisbane and Miami and finishing runner-up at the Australian Open, Indian Wells and now Stuttgart.

Sabalenka has already reached five finals this year, winning Brisbane and Miami and finishing runner-up at the Australian Open, Indian Wells and now Stuttgart.

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And the gap could widen even more during the rest of the clay-court season, as Swiatek is defending more than twice as many ranking points over the course of Madrid, Rome and Roland Garros.

Swiatek earned the maximum possible 4,000 points for winning those three tournaments last year—1,000 points for each of the WTA 1000 triumphs, then 2,000 points for conquering Roland Garros.

Sabalenka is defending 1,730 points in that stretch—650 for reaching the final of Madrid (where she fell to Swiatek), 650 for reaching the final of Rome (where she fell to Swiatek again) and 430 for reaching the quarterfinals of Roland Garros (where she fell to Mirra Andreeva).

Watch this space for all of the upcoming WTA No. 1 updates.

Meanwhile, the woman who defeated Sabalenka in the Stuttgart final, Jelena Ostapenko, jumps from No. 24 to No. 18 on the WTA rankings, her first time in the Top 20 in more than three months, since she was No. 17 the week before the Australian Open in January.

She dropped out of the Top 20 after falling in the second round of the WTA 500 event in Adelaide, where she was the defending champion, and even fell as low as No. 37 in February before starting her climb back towards the upper echelon. She's a former world No. 5.

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There are notable moves on the ATP rankings, too, including Carlos Alcaraz and Alexander Zverev flip-flopping at No. 2 and No. 3 for the second week in a row—last week Alcaraz went from No. 3 to No. 2 after winning Monte Carlo, bumping Zverev from No. 2 to No.3, but this week Zverev rises back to No. 2 after winning Munich, while Alcaraz dips back to No. 3 after falling in the Barcelona final.

And the man who defeated Alcaraz for the Barcelona title, Holger Rune, makes a welcome return to the Top 10, rising from No. 13 to No. 9, his first time in the elite since the week of April 8th, 2024.

Though he was ranked outside of the Top 10 for just over a year, he never strayed too far—he was still in the Top 15 almost the entire time, except for a handful of weeks at No. 16 and No. 17 last summer.

The 21-year-old Dane is a former world No. 4, spending six weeks at that career-high between late August and early October in 2023.