ATP Finals: Alex de Minaur vs. Jannik Sinner | Preview, Pick, Where to Watch

Who wants to tell Alex de Minaur what his record is against Jannik Sinner?

It seems like a cruel moment to remind him. The Australian is coming off one of the most important, and necessary, wins of his career, over Taylor Fritz on Thursday. De Minaur said that his close loss to Lorenzo Musetti earlier in the week had sent him “to a dark place.” After a series of tight defeats and finish-line fadeouts in recent years, the Musetti match was the straw that threatened to break de Minaur’s competitive back.

But all of that could be forgotten, at least temporarily, when he turned around and beat the higher-ranked Fritz for his first win in six tries at the ATP Finals. It also came with a surprise bonus: A trip to the semifinals in Turin.

Which takes us back, unfortunately for de Minaur, to his record against Sinner. It’s 0-12. In those 12 matches, he has won just two sets. Sinner is, to state the obvious, a very bad matchup for him. The taller and rangier Italian has the edge in pace with every shot, from serve to return to forehand to backhand. Sinner-De Minaur pits stellar offense vs. stellar defense, and in tennis today, offense wins championships. Throw in the fact that Sinner is playing at home, where he is the defending champion, and is riding a 29-match win streak on indoor hard courts, and this one only looks more lopsided.

Sinner, who is 3-0 this week and hasn’t dropped a set, doesn’t sound overly concerned.

“When you win all three, you have to play some great tennis, which I’ve done,” he said after making 75 percent of his first serves to beat Ben Shelton on Friday. “I feel like I’m serving very well in important moments, which brought me to this point. The mental aspect was great until now.”

Is there any hope for the Demon? He did take a set from Sinner on hard courts in Beijing last month. And he believes his win over Fritz is evidence that he’s improving against the big guns.

“I feel like I’ve gained a lot of momentum recently in these types of matches, right?” de Minaur said on Thursday. “I’ve gone from a stage where, hey, you go out there, you compete, but you’re not really getting a lot of chances. I do feel like I'm getting my chances. Even here against Carlos [Alcaraz] in the first set, 5-3 up, 5-4, two serves, I’m putting myself in pretty good positions.

“Jannik, I played a good match against him in Beijing. In Vienna, he got the better of me, as well. But I do feel like I’m heading in the right direction.”

De Minaur is also doing what a lot of his tour-mates are doing these days: Praying that one of the Top 2 will finally have an off day.

Read more: Taylor Fritz declares Carlos Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner “Big 2” after ATP Finals exit

“They’ve played at an incredibly high level for an extended period of time,” De Minaur said of Sinner and Alcaraz. “We are just going to keep on getting better and wait for our opportunity.”

“At least I’m hoping they’re not going to show up every single day of the year, right?”

You’re right, Alex, Sinner will have a bad day, someday. But I don’t think it will be in the semis of the ATP Finals, at home, when he’s one match from a possible year-end clash with Alcaraz. Winner: Sinner