Game, Set, Bet, presented by BetMGM: Who will win the Nitto ATP Finals? 

Group play for the 2025 Nitto ATP Finals, the tour’s year-end showcase, kicks off Sunday, November 9 at Inalpi Arena in Turin, Italy. Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz, Alexander Zverev, Taylor Fritz, Ben Shelton and Alex de Minaur are officially in the field. Novak Djokovic has qualified, but he’s still weighing whether to take part. The final spot hinges on Lorenzo Musetti’s performance in Athens. If Musetti doesn’t win the 250-level event, Felix Auger-Aliassime will claim the eighth spot and compete for tennis’ second-richest prize.

The tournament format splits the field into two groups of four. Every player faces the other three in their group once. The top two from each group will advance to the semifinals, after which the event transitions to single-elimination play.

With that in mind, here’s a quick look at the two groups—and predictions for who’ll reach the semifinals and win it all.

Jimmy Connors Group

• Carlos Alcaraz
• Novak Djokovic
• Taylor Fritz
• Alex de Minaur

Alcaraz bagged an indoor title this season in Rotterdam, which temporarily quieted worries about his play on very-fast surfaces. Still, an early loss to Cam Norrie at the Rolex Paris Masters leaves him arriving in Turin with a touch less momentum. Even so, Alcaraz’s career-best hold percentage (87.4%) makes it hard to imagine him falling before the semifinals. He’s arguably the world’s best returner, and now has the ability to hit spots on his serve—making him even tougher to beat during key moments.

There’s a real argument for Fritz making it out of the group, too. Djokovic has dominated their rivalry, winning 11 straight against the American. But indoors, it’s tricky for the Serbian to consistently break Fritz. The US Open meeting between the two saw Fritz outplay Djokovic for stretches, only for big points to slip away. With Djokovic’s recent dip in form, Fritz is poised to overcome the lopsided head-to-head and finally deal the 24-time Grand Slam champion a loss in a meaningful setting. If Djokovic sits this out, Fritz’s path gets even smoother.

👉 Stream the full episode of Matchup Mindset with Alexander Zverev here, on the Tennis Channel app.

Bjorn Borg Group

• Jannik Sinner
• Alexander Zverev
• Ben Shelton
• Felix Auger-Aliassime OR Lorenzo Musetti

Sinner is 42-3 on hard courts over the past year, and he comes into this event off back-to-back titles in Vienna and Paris. The Italian has fine-tuned his serve recently, and has also added more variety to his baseline game. After a thumping loss to Alcaraz at the US Open, Sinner vowed to become less predictable from the baseline, and he’s delivering: more drop shots, net rushes and creative groundstroke placement. Still, he shouldn’t need those wrinkles just to make it through group play—it would be surprising if he didn’t. However, the new elements could pay off deeper in the event.

The other semifinal berth will be intriguing. If Auger-Aliassime qualifies, there’s a chance he nabs a spot in the final four. He’s in impressive hard-court form (14-3 since the US Open), winning Brussels and nearly taking Paris, ultimately losing a tight one to Sinner. Auger-Aliassime also beat Zverev at Flushing Meadows.

Should Musetti land the final spot instead, Zverev becomes the favorite to advance. It’s tough to see him losing to anyone but Sinner, especially given his strong history in this event.

Pick To Win

Jannik Sinner: Sinner talks a lot about mixing in variety to trouble Alcaraz, but serving sharper is just as critical. In New York, he didn’t serve well and missed chances to punish Alcaraz’s weaker deliveries. Indoors, Sinner should have an edge, especially if he's breezing through service games. He’s also playing at home in Turin.

All things considered, he’s the pick to win this title for a second straight year.