ATP Finals Semis Previews: Alexander Zverev vs. Taylor Fritz, Jannik Sinner vs. Casper Ruud

Alexander Zverev vs. Taylor Fritz

Zverev and Fritz weren’t the favorites coming to Turin, but it felt like they were the guys with the most to prove.

Zverev had a chance to show he’s worthy of being ranked No. 2, one spot ahead of the man who beat him in the Roland Garros final, Carlos Alcaraz. He could also make himself a legitimate contender, alongside Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner, for major titles in 2025. Zverev had won the most matches in 2022, but Alcaraz and Sinner had won the big events. Zverev, with his title two weeks ago at the Paris Masters, seemed to be playing well enough to change that in Turin.

Early in the week, Zverev hinted at his growing self-confidence when he was asked about Sinner receiving a trophy for finishing the season No. 1.

“We’ll see who’s going to receive that trophy next year,” the German said.

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As for Fritz, he was starting a few spots lower in the rankings than Zverev, but he was in a similar position. In 2024, he made the quarters or better at three of the Slams, and reached his first major final at the US Open. He beat Zverev at Wimbledon and the US Open, and nearly cracked the Top 5 for the first time. His draw in Turin gave him a chance to go up against two opponents, Sinner and Daniil Medvedev, that he had only faced a few times before.

So far, the German and the American have taken full advantage of their opportunities. Zverev went 3-0 in group play, didn’t drop a set, and avenged that Roland Garros loss to Alcaraz. Fritz also played three excellent matches, beating Medvedev, losing a close slugfest to Sinner, and coming back from a set down, when he needed a win, to beat Alex De Minaur.

Fritz leads Zverev 6-5, and he is 3-1 against him in 2024. But he says none of their encounters are ever “easy.”

“I think our games match up well,” Fritz says. “Whoever does certain things better on the day wins. When you have two guys that are big servers playing each other, it can always just come down to a couple points here and there.”

In a rivalry this close, does three straight wins for Fritz mean he has the advantage? Or does the edge swing back to Zverev, who should be especially motivated to end his skid?

“He beat me the past few times at the Slams,” Zverev says. “So I’m looking forward to that match.”

Fritz has done a better job in their recent contests of setting up his forehand and using it to get ahead in rallies. Zverev is still less likely to run around his backhand and try to dominate with his forehand alone, which often leaves him on the defensive.

On the plus side for Zverev, the surface in Turin is slower than the ones at Wimbledon and the US Open. That should favor his more clay-friendly game.

On the plus side for Fritz, he’ll be coming in after a day of rest, while Zverev will be playing 24 hours after holding off Alcaraz in two competitive sets.

All of which makes this a toss-up, and which may leave it on the racquet of Zverev. Will he have a letdown, or a surge of confidence, after beating Alcaraz? I’ll bet on the latter. Winner: Zverev

Jannik Sinner vs. Casper Ruud

Zverev and Fritz know each other’s games inside and out. Not true for Sinner and Ruud. They’ve played twice; both matches were in Vienna, in 2020 and 2021, and both ended in straight-set Sinner victories. That it means it has been more than three years since their paths have crossed, and a lot has happened in both men’s careers since. Ruud has proven himself to be a Top 5 player and Grand Slam contender. Sinner, over the past year, has gone even farther by rising to No. 1.

Sinner looks set to finish 2024 the way he started it in Australia, with his first title at a significant tournament. He’s 3-0, and has yet to drop a set. A finalist in Turin a year ago, the Italian enjoys a big home-court advantage. He beat a Top 5 opponent, Daniil Medvedev, in fairly routine fashion, and withstood a baseline barrage from Taylor Fritz.

Still, if Ruud is the underdog, he’s certainly in with a chance. Sinner may like the atmosphere in the arena, but the clay-loving Ruud will feel at home on the slower hard court. He made the semis here in 2021 and the final in 2022. He also has a win over Alcaraz this week, and he won’t feel the same pressure that Sinner, the hometown hero, does.

But if Sinner has shown us anything in 2024, it’s that he lives for pressure moments—or doesn’t real feel them at all. He has talked a lot about how “important” Turin is to him. When he talks about a tournament that way these days, he tends to win it. Winner: Sinner