ATP Rome Betting Preview: Will Jannik Sinner return to the winner's circle? 

The final clay-court Masters 1000 event of the year is here, as the best players on the ATP Tour are in Rome for the Internazionali BNL d’Italia. The entry list doesn’t include Novak Djokovic, who hasn’t been himself for a couple of weeks and seemingly needs some time to get himself right for Roland Garros. But it does feature Jannik Sinner, who is back from his three-month doping suspension. Nobody was able to take Sinner’s spot atop the ATP rankings while he was out, and the Italian is the betting favorite to win this tournament in front of a home crowd.

But rust could be a factor for the world No. 1, and Carlos Alcaraz, who beat Sinner on clay at Roland Garros last year, is lurking. So is defending champion Alexander Zverev, always a force on clay.

Let’s get into it in this edition of Game, Set, Bet, presented by BetMGM, with a Rome betting preview, a breakdown of the court conditions, our players to watch and a pick to win.

Internazionali BNL d’Italia Open Winners

• 2020: Novak Djokovic
• 2021: Rafael Nadal
• 2022: Novak Djokovic
• 2023: Daniil Medvedev
• 2024: Alexander Zverev

Internazionali BNL d’Italia Betting Odds

• Jannik Sinner (+200)
• Carlos Alcaraz (+275)
• Alexander Zverev (+900)
• Jack Draper (14-1)
• Casper Ruud (22-1)
• Holger Rune (25-1)
• Lorenzo Musetti (28-1)
• Francisco Cerundolo (33-1)
• Alex de Minaur (33-1)
• Taylor Fritz (40-1)

(For all of the odds, head over to BetMGM)

Internazionali BNL d’Italia Conditions

Altitude was the story of the Mutua Madrid Open, as that event plays faster than most of the clay-court tournaments on the calendar. We saw several big servers win big matches in Spain. Well, we’re back to sea level for this 1000-level event, meaning the conditions in Rome are gritty. So, get ready to put a little more weight into baseline play, and the ability to grind out long rallies.

Last year, Tennis Abstract had Rome with a Surface Speed of 0.67, which means the Ace Rate at the tournament was 33% lower than that of a tour-average event. While having a great serve is always a good thing, it’s not going to give players a massive leg up this week. You really have to have rally tolerance in Rome. If not, you better be striking the ball as clean as can be.

Internazionali BNL d’Italia Players To Watch

Jannik Sinner (+200): All eyes are on Sinner this week. The Italian hasn’t lost a match this season—though he's only played seven, winning the Australian Open before serving his three-month suspension. Sinner is going to be extremely well rested coming, and one would think he has had quite a bit of time to work on his body and make any technical changes he saw fit. Tennis players usually aren’t afforded three full months off, so there’s a chance he’ll be even more dangerous. But how will Sinner look without having played actual matches since January? On-court rust can get the better of anyone, even if it only manifests itself in the form of poor match conditioning.

As far as the conditions go, I’m a big believer in Sinner’s clay-court game. I know he hasn’t yet had a big breakthrough on the dirt, but he looked like he was on his way to winning in Madrid before pulling out of the tournament with an injury last year. Overall, he’s 54-24 on clay at the tour level.

Sinner’s ability to maneuver the baseline, blast the ball from both wings and serve and return at elite levels will make him a factor on any surface. And I strongly feel that the variety Sinner has added to his game will result in some huge clay results eventually. Adding a drop shot, improving his net game and mixing up the types of shots he hits in rallies will only make it harder for opponents to know what’s coming. And all of that plays well in slower, grittier conditions.

Holger Rune (25-1): I’m at the point where I have no idea what to expect out of Rune. When he’s healthy, he has the game to beat anyone—which is why I said he has the potential to win Grand Slam titles on Tennis Bets Live. In Barcelona, Rune beat Casper Ruud, Karen Khachanov and Carlos Alcaraz in straight sets in his final three matches to win the title. However, Rune then went to Madrid and retired after dropping the first set in his Round of 64 meeting with Flavio Cobolli. He has had a lot of trouble finishing matches all throughout the year.

Is Rune healthy enough to compete in Rome? If so, his all-court ability will make him a tough out. And I happen to think he has a great path to the quarterfinals, as I’m not expecting Jack Draper to play very well after losing in the final in Spain.

Internazionali BNL d’Italia Pick To Win

Lorenzo Musetti (28-1): I’m not sure Musetti will actually win this tournament, but he has a pretty clear path to the quarterfinals. At that point, he’d likely face Arthur Fils, Stefanos Tsitsipas or Zverev—no easy match-ups. But Musetti is playing as well as anyone right now. He went all the way to the final in Monte-Carlo, then he followed it up with a run to the semifinals in Madrid. Well, why can’t he take it a step further playing in front of a home crowd?

The conditions in Rome are a bit more like Monte-Carlo, so Musetti is going to have time to load up with his one-handed backhand. And the high bounces are going to make it very difficult to get the ball by him. So, this should be Musetti at his very best. And at 28-1, it feels like this is worth a pizza-money play. When filling out a bracket for this tournament, I had Musetti facing Alcaraz in the semifinals. And while that went the Spaniard’s way in Monte-Carlo, I’d like Musetti’s chances against a banged-up Alcaraz in Rome. I also think the winner of this tournament will come from the bottom half of the draw, so if Musetti is in the final, then he just might win this.