Can Aryna Sabalenka close this time as the favorite? Breaking down the Australian Open women's draw

If the ultimate goal were to make the final, Aryna Sabalenka would be the heavy favorite at this year’s Australian Open. In the last 12 majors, she has played for the title six times. But when it comes to winning those final-round matches, she’s only half as good. Since the start of 2023, she’s 3-3 in Slam finals. She’s the rare player who has stayed No. 1 for 65 straight weeks, while also losing as many big matches as she wins.

Sabalenka has done both in Melbourne: In 2023 and 2024, she won it all; last year she lost a heartbreaker to Madison Keys in the final. We can pretty much bank on her reaching the business end of the event this year. Who might join her there?

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First Quarter

Sabalenka has been cool and collected so far in 2026, and for good reason. She finished 2025 with a victory at the US Open, and started this season with another in Brisbane, where she didn’t drop a set or have a meltdown.

There’s no one in her draw that should make her panic, exactly, but there are a couple of opponents who have troubled her in the past. Her potential third-round foe, Emma Raducanu, nearly beat her in Cincinnati last summer. And a potential fourth-round opponent, Clara Tauson, knocked her off 6-3, 6-2 last winter in Dubai. But the woman who is lined up to play her in the quarters, Jasmine Paolini, wouldn’t seem to be a threat: Sabalenka has won their last five matches, all in straight sets.

Dark Horse: Marta Kostyuk is coming off a runner-up run in Brisbane, where she beat three higher seeds. She’s in Paolini’s section.

Semifinalist: Sabalenka

Second Quarter

Since their first meeting in 2023, Coco Gauff vs. Mirra Andreeva has seemed destined to be the WTA rivalry of the future. It hasn’t materialized quite yet, as both women went through peaks and valleys in 2025, and the American has yet to lose to the Russian in four meetings. But at 21 and 18, respectively, they’ve got plenty of time.

They’ve landed in the same section here. Will we see match No. 5 in the quarters?

The three seeds on Gauff’s side are No. 15 Emma Navarro, No. 19 Karolina Muchova, and No. 32 Marketa Vondrousova. Depending on her always-uncertain health, Muchova seems like the most dangerous of the three. She has been to the semis here, and just reached that round in Brisbane last week.

Andreeva, meanwhile, will have a potentially tough opener with Donna Vekic, followed by another versus Maria Sakkari. The seeds in her half are No. 12 Elina Svitolina, who just won a title in Auckland, No. 23 Diana Shnaider, who is in the semis in Adelaide; and No. 26 Dayana Yastremska, who has been an Australian Open semifinalist.

Wild Card: 45-year-old Venus Williams is 0-2 to start 2026. She’ll try to get on the board against 68th-ranked Olga Danilovic. The winner could play Gauff.

First-Round Matches to Watch

• Vondrousova vs. Hailey Baptiste
• Alexandra Eala vs. Alycia Parks
• Shnaider vs. Barbora Krejcikova
• Andreeva vs. Vekic

Potential Second-Round Match to Watch: Gauff vs. Williams

Semifinalist: Gauff

Third Quarter

Three Americans, three high seeds, three contenders. Those would be No. 4 Amanda Anisimova, No. 6 Jessica Pegula, and No. 9 Madison Keys. The latter is the defending champion, but Pegula and Anisimova have also reached the quarters more than once here. All are in the opposite half of the draw from Sabalenka, and all of them have a chance to meet her in the final. But they’ll probably have to go through each other first.

Keys and Pegula are in the top half of this section. Keys could meet No. 22 Leylah Fernandez in the third round, while Pegula is looking at a potential second-rounder with another American, McCartney Kessler, and a possible third-round meeting with Paula Badosa.

Anisimova, meanwhile, is on her own in the bottom half. The players of note hear her are 2020 champ Sofia Kenin, No. 24 seed Jelena Ostapenko, and, perhaps most dangerous, No. 13 and rising Linda Noskova. Anisimova edged Noskova in a tight three-setter on her way to the Wimbledon final last year.

First-Round Match to Watch

• Karolina Pliskova vs. Sloane Stephens will make it feel like the early Trump years all over again

Semifinalist: Pegula

Fourth Quarter

Iga Swiatek and Elena Rybakina are the two big names left, and they’re on opposites sides of the bottom quarter. Neither comes in on a hot streak, but they’re Grand Slam champs and perennial Top 5 players for a reason.

Swiatek has never made the final in Melbourne, but she should have a little extra motivation this year: It’s her first chance to complete a career Grand Slam. She must be happy to have helped Poland to its first United Cup title, but not as happy with her own play. Her forehand went haywire in losses to Gauff and Belinda Bencic. The seeds in her half are Naomi Osaka, Liudmila Samsonova, and Anna Kalinskaya. Any, or all, of them could give her a scare.

Rybakina ended 2025 on a very high note, by winning of the WTA Finals in Riyadh. She also made the AO final three years ago. And she looked OK in reaching the quarters in Brisbane last week. She has what looks to be a smooth path early, but could face a fourth-round test from Belinda Bencic. Bencic is coming off a 9-1 run in United Cup that nearly resulted in a title for Switzerland.

First-Round Matches to Watch

• Bencic vs. Katie Boulter
• Samsonova vs. Laura Siegemund

Semifinalist: Rybakina

Semifinals

Sabalenka d. Gauff; Rybakina d. Pegula

Final

Sabalenka d. Rybakina