Can Aryna Sabalenka make it three straight in Melbourne? | Australian Open women's preview

The WTA has a queen of clay. Is it about to crown another one for hard concrete?

Seven months ago, we were asking whether anyone could beat three-time champion Iga Swiatek on the red dirt at Roland Garros. The answer was no. Now many of us are asking the same question about two-time champion Aryna Sabalenka on the acrylic courts at the Australian Open.

To this point, Sabalenka hasn’t acquired the aura in Melbourne that Swiatek has in Paris. But a third straight title Down Under might get her there. Here’s a look at her road ahead, and four more things to watch as the tournament begins this weekend.

1. Sabalenka will have to earn it

The world No. 1 and two-time AO champion arrives healthy and close to peak form, having won the last Slam of 2024 at the US Open, and her first event of 2025 in Brisbane. But she may encounter some bumps in her road to the semifinals. Her quarter of the draw includes at least one former Grand Slam winner, and a couple other young players who seem destined to win one someday.

She’ll start against Sloane Stephens, the 2017 US Open champion. Stephens is 31 now, ranked 66th, and is 0-4 against the top seed. But all of those matches have been close, and Sloane can force Sabalenka to hit more balls than she wants.

In the third round, Sabalenka could play Linda Noskova, who upset Swiatek when she was the No. 1 seed at this event a year ago.

After that, she might face 15th-ranked Mirra Andreeva. Sabalenka is 3-1 against the 17th-year-old, but she lost to her in their most important meeting, at Roland Garros last spring. It’s a matter of when, not if, Andreeva wins a major title, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it happens in 2025.

In form holds, Sabalenka will play No. 5 seed Zheng Qinwen in the quarters, in a rematch of last year’s final. Sabalenka is 5-0 against Zheng, and has only dropped one set to her. But the 22-year-old Zheng, like Andreeva, is a rising force.

2. Coco Gauff may be peaking at the right time

What a difference four months have made for Gauff. The last time we saw her at a Slam, in New York, her confidence, especially on her serve, was at an all-time low. Now, coming to Melbourne, she’s in the best form of her career. Over the last three months, she has won a WTA 1000 in Beijing and the WTA Finals in Riyadh, beaten Sabalenka and Swiatek, and led the U.S. to the United Cup.

Gauff, the No. 3 seed, has landed in Sabalenka’s half, but away from other top contenders like Zheng and Elena Rybakina. As with Sabalenka, there are obstacles here for Coco, starting with a match against her countrywoman and fellow Slam winner Sofia Kenin. Gauff’s loss to Kenin at Wimbledon last year made her reassess her career, and come back stronger that summer.

The other names of note in her section are Karolina Muchova, Jelena Ostapenko, Paula Badosa, Liudmila Samsonova, and No. 7 seed Jessica Pegula. A confident Gauff would be favored against any of them, but a shaky one? Not so much.

One factor to watch with her is surface speed. It can vary Down Under, but in general the tournament has made the courts faster in recent years. I don’t think Coco, with her defensive-minded game, will want them to get too quick.

3. Coaching changes by Swiatek + Rybakina should give them a boost

Call it the new-coach dividend. In tennis, fresh partnerships can lead to stunningly immediate results. Will that be the case for either the Pole or the Kazakh?

They each played some highlight-reel tennis at United Cup last week, especially when they faced off in the semifinals. Rybakina, who is working with Goran Ivanisevic, hit her forehand well, and seemed to enjoy herself more. Swiatek, who is working with Wim Fissette, played with positive energy, and a new willingness to follow her shots forward.

There’s no reason that either of these Slam champs should end her career without an AO title. And I don’t think there’s a good reason for them not to make the semifinals this time around. Neither will face a murderer’s row of opponents.

The next-highest seed in Swiatek’s quarter is Emma Navarro, and the three seeds nearest her are Ekaterina Alexandrova, Victoria Azarenka, and Anna Kalinskaya.

The next-highest seed in Rybakina’s section is Jasmine Paolini. Her toughest competition, on paper, may come from Madison Keys in the fourth round.

If there’s something that could derail Rybakina, it may come from the questions and scrutiny she faces off court. She has asked her old coach, Stefano Vukov, who is under investigation for abuse and banned from the tour, to return to her camp. Hopefully, for her, it’s a story that fades as her wins with Ivanisevic mount.

4. There are good matches out of the gate

These are some first-rounders to keep an eye on:

• Sabalenka vs. Stephens. Sabalenka is 4-0 against the American, but the scores have been tight. If there’s someone who can frustrate Sabalenka, it’s Sloane
• Noskova vs. Clara Tauson
• Andreeva vs. Marie Bouzkova
• Ajla Tomljanovic vs. Ashlyn Krueger
• Gauff vs. Kenin
• Naomi Osaka vs. Caroline Garcia, for the second straight year
• Ostapenko vs. Belinda Bencic
• Pegula vs. 18-year-old Aussie wild card, and newest member of tennis’s cool-name club, Maya Joint
• Navarro vs. Peyton Stearns
• Alexandrova vs. Emma Raducanu

5. And the winner will be…

Semifinals: Sabalenka d. Gauff; Rybakina d. Swiatek

Final: Sabalenka d. Rybakina