Can Daniil Medvedev or Carlos Alcaraz finish 2022 the way they started it?

INTERVIEW: Carlos Alcaraz after winning the Miami Open—his last hard-court tournament

This week, we'll continue our 2022 second-half preview series, which began with a look at the Centre Court Cinderella, Elena Rybakina.

As players and personalities, Daniil Medvedev and Carlos Alcaraz don’t have a ton in common. One is Russian, the other Spanish. One is 26, the other 19. One is 6’6”, the other 6’1”. One wins with an unorthodox mix of flat strokes and thoughtful steadiness; the other wins with a thoroughly modern mix of full-throttle topspin power and delicate touch. One celebrates big wins by dropping to the court like a “dead fish”; the other celebrates with a roar and a fist thrown at the sky.

But Medvedev and Alcaraz have shared an important label over the last 12 months: During that time, each has been called the heir to the Big Three, and the next dominant men’s player. But as the second half of the season starts, neither is ascending with quite the same velocity.

After Medvedev beat Novak Djokovic in last year’s US Open final, led Russia to the Davis Cup title, and led Rafael Nadal two sets to love in the Australian Open final, he seemed sure to become the face of the game for the rest of 2022. Then, a triple-whammy struck.

First, Medvedev gave up that two-set lead to Nadal in Melbourne. Then he had hernia surgery and missed two months. Then he learned that, as a Russian, he would be banned from Wimbledon. Medvedev, who reached No. 1 for the first time in February, gamely did his best at Roland Garros and the smaller grass-court tournaments, and has amassed enough points to currently sit atop the tour standings. But he still hasn’t won a title since Flushing Meadows, and he’ll need to rebuild his early-year momentum from scratch. The last time most of us saw Medvedev was in an Instagram video that he posted on the afternoon of the Wimbledon men’s final. In the clip, a camera pans across his living room to show him watching…Formula 1. “Perfect day,” the dry-humored Russian wrote in the caption.

Alcaraz hasn’t suffered a run of bad luck anything like Medvedev’s. His ranking is at a career-high No. 5; that’s a 50-spot rise from one year ago. He just reached a final in Hamburg, and lost an outstanding match to an inspired opponent, Lorenzo Musetti. Alcaraz made the quarterfinals at Roland Garros and the fourth round at Wimbledon. And again, he’s still just 19. At the same time, though, his recent results represent a leveling off. In financial terms, you might call it a market correction after his meteoric rise in value this spring.

From February to May, Alcaraz won titles in Rio, Miami, Barcelona and Madrid, and beat Nadal, Djokovic and Alexander Zverev back-to-back-to-back before the home crowds at the Caja Magica. By then, Alcaraz had replaced Medvedev as the consensus future of men’s tennis, and Zverev had crowned him “the best player in the world.” I can remember thinking that Nadal and Djokovic should pile up as many Slam titles as they can, because Alcaraz is going to be coming for their records.

In Paris, he was installed as a co-favorite for the title with Nadal and Djokovic. Instead of facing off against one of them, though, Alcaraz lost to Zverev in the quarters in four tight sets. Then he lost to another young player, Jannik Sinner, also in four sets, at Wimbledon. At the Hamburg Open, he lost to an even younger opponent in the 20-year-old Musetti.

In all three of those losses, Alcaraz started slowly, fought back bravely, but couldn’t quite find the shot he needed to turn the tide in his favor. That was a change from his Olympian spring, when he seemed entirely fearless, willing and able to hammer a forehand winner or carve out a perfect drop shot exactly when he had to have it. In his last three losses, Alcaraz has been either a little wild or a little tight in those moments. In other words, while the sky is still the limit, and he’s still a lock to be a multiple Grand Slam winner in the future, he’s also human.

If they rise to the top of the rankings at the same time, they’ll take the sport in two opposing, but equally watchable, directions, and they would make for a strange and perfect stylistic contrast if they were to become rivals.

When Medvedev and Alcaraz begin the North American hard-court swing in a few weeks, they’ll have some new competition in the Next Big Thing sweepstakes. Nick Kyrgios made the Wimbledon final; Casper Ruud made the Roland Garros final; Matteo Berrettini has reached three straight finals on two surfaces. And rather than making room at the top, Nadal and Djokovic have combined to win the first three majors of the year.

But Medvedev and Alcaraz may still be the most intriguing players of the second half, and maybe even of the US Open. The Russian loves the summer hard courts, and has won titles in Toronto, Cincinnati and New York. He’ll surely be motivated to put the first half of this frustrating season behind him, and prove again that he belongs at No. 1. As for Alcaraz, he burst into the consciousness of American tennis fans with his spectacular five-set win over Stefanos Tsitsipas in the third round in Arthur Ashe Stadium last year. He’ll feel the love in that arena again this year.

Neither of these guys has taken over the tour just yet, the way we thought they might earlier in 2022. But that doesn’t mean we were wrong to tout them so highly. For me, the best thing about them as a pair is how different they are. If they rise to the top of the rankings at the same time, they’ll take the sport in two opposing, but equally watchable, directions, and they would make for a strange and perfect stylistic contrast if they were to become rivals. Between them, Medvedev and Alcaraz show how wide and varied the terrain of tennis brilliance can be. I’m looking forward to seeing where they take us the rest of this year