Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner set to battle for the No. 1 ranking at the 2025 US Open

It might not have ended the way he wanted it to, but Carlos Alcaraz won the Cincinnati Open title on Monday when Jannik Sinner had to retire down 5-0 in the first set of the final.

There are, of course, some immediate numbers to come out of that result—it’s the Spaniard’s tour-leading sixth title of the year and the eighth Masters 1000 title of his career, among other things.

But the result also creates a very interesting ranking scenario.

Alcaraz is now just 1,890 points behind Sinner on the new ATP rankings, 11,480 to 9,590, and when you take off their US Open points from last year—2,000 for Sinner for winning the title, 50 for Alcaraz for falling to Botic van de Zandschulp in the second round—Alcaraz is actually ahead by 60 points, 9,540 to 9,480.

That means Alcaraz is the frontrunner to leave New York at No. 1.

Basically, Sinner needs to do one round better than Alcaraz at the US Open to keep No. 1. He also needs to reach at least the third round just to have a chance at hanging onto the top spot.

If the two meet in the final, the winner will be No. 1.

ALCARAZ AND SINNER RANKING POINT TOTALS BY ROUND AT 2025 US OPEN:

• 1st Rd (10 points): Alcaraz 9,550, Sinner 9,490
• 2nd Rd (50 points): Alcaraz 9,590, Sinner 9,530
• 3rd Rd (100 points): Alcaraz 9,640, Sinner 9,580
• 4th Rd (200 points): Alcaraz 9,740, Sinner 9,680
• QFs (400 points): Alcaraz 9,940, Sinner 9,880
• SFs (800 points): Alcaraz 10,340, Sinner 10,280
• F (1,300 points): Alcaraz 10,840, Sinner 10,780
• W (2,000 points): Alcaraz 11,540, Sinner 11,480

No other man will be in the running for the No. 1 ranking during the US Open. No other man will even be in the running for the No. 2 ranking, as the two are too far ahead of the rest of the field.

Watch this space during the US Open for all of the No. 1 updates!