Carlos Alcaraz meets Jannik Sinner for ATP Finals trophy | Preview, Pick, Where to Watch

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Jannik Sinner

“It’s great to play Jannik Sinner in another final this year,” Alcaraz says.

“I’m looking forward to tomorrow; these are the matches I look up to,” Sinner says.

By now, it’s almost beside the point to ask these two whether they would rather play someone else in a major final. They probably understand, just as well as the rest of us do, that it’s not going to happen. The Spaniard and the Italian have faced off in five finals in 2025, and they were only in the same draw seven times. Maybe more than any season in which the Big 3 dominated, this finale felt inevitable.

In Turin, both have looked as sharp and dominant as they have all year. Alcaraz has dropped one set, Sinner none. By Saturday, each of them was locked in and borderline unplayable.

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In his semifinal win over Felix Auger-Aliassime, Alcaraz opened with the most blistering eight games anyone has put together all week.

“I felt like I could do everything on the court,” he said. “I felt like everything was going to be in.”

For his part, Sinner weathered some inspired tennis from Alex De Minaur in the first 10 games, before raising his level accordingly for a 7-5, 6-2 win, his 13th straight over the Australian.

“I felt like he was serving great, very precise. In the second set, I broke very early and then my level rose,” Sinner said. “I tried to be a bit more aggressive and it worked well.”

So who will win when these two monster trucks of tennis collide on Sunday? After watching them show off their best in the semis, it feels like trying to choose between two perfect players, each of whom has helped refine the other’s game as they’ve gone back and forth over the course of this season.

“Thanks to him I’m trying to approach the match in a different way, more focused,” Alcaraz said on Saturday. “I know that I have to play my plan A if I want to beat him.”

Sinner’s loss to Alcaraz at Roland Garros made him rethink his approach at Wimbledon, and it worked. Alcaraz’s loss at Wimbledon made him rethink his approach at the US Open, and that worked, too. According to Alcaraz, the second-serve return was the key shot at Wimbledon and in New York. The player who did more with it, who pushed the other guy out of position and put him on the defensive on his own serve, came out the winner.

What adjustments will they make in Turin? They haven’t played since Alcaraz won in a fairly one-sided four setter at the Open. After that loss, Sinner said he needed to add more touch and variety to his game, to match the drop shots that Alcaraz always has at his fingertips. This fall, Sinner has indeed used his crosscourt forehand drop effectively, and he’s 20-1 since that Open defeat. Now he’ll put that shot to the true test: Alcaraz and his nonpareil speed.

Sinner’s new finesse may play a role around the edges, but indoor hard court matches are decided most of all by the serve. Both guys have been hitting that shot exceptionally well, and both made 75 percent of their first serve in the semis. Neither was broken.

With two players this good, and this in form, there will be reasons to favor each of them.

Sinner, as I said, is 20-1 since the Open, and has won 30 straight indoor matches. He’s the defending champion and a two-time finalist in Turin, and has won his last nine matches there. He takes his already sky-high level even higher in front of his home fans.

Alcaraz is 71-8 this season, finished No. 1, and is 4-1 against Sinner (though Sinner was forced to retire due to illness after five games in Cincinnati). Alcaraz is 10-5 in their career head to head, and has shown a knack for finding his best against Sinner when he has to have it.

It’s that last fact that leads me to pick Alcaraz. In this battle of perfect players, his ceiling has traditionally been just a tiny bit higher.

Either way, I hope Alcaraz’s prediction is the one that comes true.

“I think we both are gonna raise our level to the top, which I think is going to be great for both of us, and for the crowd.”

The Pick: Alcaraz