Cincinnati women's final preview: Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula

Every final is between two players who have been playing well. But that seems especially true with Sabalenka and Pegula right now. They both established themselves in the Top 5 in recent years, but for much of 2024 they haven’t been at their best, in part because of injuries, and in part because of uncharacteristic drops in their levels.

Now, though, as the courts get faster and the year’s final Grand Slam approaches, they look like their old selves and their best selves again. Pegula is trying to win her second straight WTA 1000 title after taking Toronto last week. Sabalenka is coming off one of the best performances of her career, in a 6-3, 6-3 semifinal victory over Iga Swiatek.

“I think I’m just finding my game a little bit and then competing and being smart out there,” Pegula said, in her usual low-key, nothing-to-see-here style, when somebody asked if she was “in the zone.”

Sabalenka, not surprisingly, wasn’t as demure about her current form.

“I’m back, I’m back,” she said, before her win over Swiatek.

Afterward, she was even more pleased with herself.

“I think it was brilliant performance from me,” she said.

All of which means this should be a fight between two of the WTA’s best—and two legitimate contenders for the Open crown—at their best.

It’s also a match we don’t get to see all that often. Sabalenka leads their head-to-head 4-2, but since the start of 2022, they’ve only played three times. On hard courts, Pegula leads 2-1, and she won their most recent meeting, last fall on hard in Cancun.

But Cincy, as we’ve seen and heard all week, isn’t just any hard court. It’s the fastest on tour this season. Sabalenka would seem to be the bigger beneficiary of that. From her serve to her forehand to her backhand, she hits with more pace, and can overpower anyone on the right day.

“It seems like she’s been playing really, really good,” Pegula said of Sabalenka. “Obviously can serve really big, so it’s always tough to deal with opponents that have weapons like that, where they can get a lot of free points on a faster hard court.”

Still Pegula likes her courts quick, too. Her whole game is based around absorbing and redirecting her opponent’s pace, and sending it back with flat speed.

“I think I can play well against big hitters, because I can kind of rush them,” Pegula says. "My ball kind of, especially on maybe a little faster hard court where it’s skidding and not giving a lot of time to set up for their shots.”

“I think my ability to take time away from my opponents is probably the biggest strength that I have.”

Pegula will also give Sabalenka a different type of ball than the heavily top-spinning one she saw from Swiatek. But Sabalenka’s goal will be to play with the same sense of self-control that she showed in her semifinal.

“I think I wasn’t [rushing] things,” she said. “I was trusting myself a lot, and I wasn't trying to over hit the ball. I was just like, trying to stay there, put as much pressure as I can on her, and I was really focused on my serve.”

“So I think, yeah, just things clicked in this match.”

Pegula is on a longer winning streak, but Sabalenka, when she’s clicking, has a higher ceiling. She seems close to it right now.

Winner: Sabalenka