Does Andrey Rublev have a shot at upsetting Carlos Alcaraz at Wimbledon?

The second week of the 2025 Wimbledon Championships kicks off in earnest on Sunday with defending champion Carlos Alcaraz taking on No. 14 seed Andrey Rublev in one of the most intriguing matches of the day.

Alcaraz has won his last 17 matches at the All England Club and leads Rublev 2-1 in their head-to-head, but does the former world No. 5 have a shot at the upset?

TC Analyst Jim Courier argued Rublev’s biggest weakness could turn into a strength on Centre Court.

“If you look at a heat map of where his second serve goes on every surface, it’s into the body,” said Courier, a former world No. 1. “We know what’s coming there. But on grass, that is the place you want to go: a slice second serve into the body actually is the ideal serve.

“Would I like to see more variety? I’ve been yelling and screaming about it when I call his matches for years. But in this particular match, trying to get into the body of Alcaraz should give him opportunities to be more offensive. So, if there is a saving grace in this match, his Achilles heel might actually help him get more forehands.”

Lindsay Davenport noted Rublev will not only need to be aggressive to challenge Alcaraz, whom he beat last year en route to winning the clay-court Mutua Madrid Open title, but also be open to improvisation.

“You probably start off the match, if you’re Rublev, from the back of the court, trying to do what you do best,” said Davenport, who won Wimbledon in 1999. “Take stock of what’s happening out there. You absolutely have to be willing to go to a Plan B if Plan A is going awry out there.

“On this surface, you’ve really got to go for everything. If the serve is not working, you’ve got to change up your location. Coming into net on grass is a good second choice.”

Rublev has aimed to work on his resilience after an underwhelming 2024 season, having been open about past mental health struggles. He hired former world No. 1 Marat Safin as his coach earlier this year, hoping to break the ceiling of 10 Grand Slam quarterfinal finishes.

“I think the biggest thing for him is, you just don’t want to go in and play your regular game and hope Alcaraz has a bad day,” agreed Prakash Amritraj. “You come in, commit to an aggressive game plan either by coming to the net or changing things around on the serve, and roll the dice that way versus doing the same thing.”

Jon Wertheim was less optimistic for Rublev coming into the clash, pointing to Alcaraz’s steady improvements through his first three rounds at SW19.

“This is kind of how he rolls,” Wertheim said of Alcaraz, the reigning Roland Garros champion. “It’s funny because we saw the same thing at Roland Garros. [Jannik] Sinner is just machine-like, barely giving up games. Carlos lost two sets in his first match and then he lost a set playing the other day against Struff. He’s sort of up and down and that’s how it was at Roland Garros, as well. He won the last set played in the entire tournament and that’s ultimately what matters.

“He played a really lousy first match, let’s put it that way,” echoed Martina Navratilova. “He won in five sets, played much better in the second match and the third round, as well. As he gets less nervous and gets better opponents, he will keep playing better tennis.”

Alcaraz and Rublev face off as the third match on Centre Court Sunday.